[ { "id": "2083903210121515343", "text": "今天跟朋友聊到这轮Crypto抄底该抄什么beta标的，朋友说他在抄MSTR，而在这一点上我们并没有达成共识。\n\n朋友的逻辑是这轮MSTR的市值已经跌破其持有的BTC的价值（nav），现在大概是7折左右，他认为到了下轮牛市高点，这个折扣会消失，变成溢价。\n\n我觉得上轮周期大家普遍把MSTR当作“杠杆BTC”在买，牛市中MSTR有融资能力去持续购买BTC，这个“融资能力”就是其市值对应Nav溢价的来源，在2024年高点时，市值/nav的溢价甚至达到了4倍。\n\n而近期MSTR开始卖币，显然是Saylor也意识到了，这个“持续买买买”的模型是长期跑不通的，因为最终还是要拿钱出来还给债主利息，如果牛市一直在高位追高给全市场抬轿子，那么到了熊市市值跌破nav“丧失融资能力后”，就会被迫低位出手btc去还利息，这就成了高买低卖了。\n\n所以Saylor的方案是什么？在近期Q2的财报中，他说会在未来去参考更多指标去判断周期高低点去做买卖决策。也就意味着，这轮MSTR已经从一家财库公司转变成了“带杠杆的基金公司”。\n\n所以如果MSTR已经变成了一家基金公司，凭什么牛市中市场还会给他这么高的nav溢价？尤其是mstr在过去的每一笔交易中几乎都展示出了极差的建仓判断和极高的磨损成本。\n\n你投MSTR就像你投了一家炒btc的基金公司，这个基金管理人在交易操作中菜的抠脚，且他的所有买卖行为和杠杆都被全市场所关注（意味着买的时候全市场都会尝试抢跑他们，砸的时候全市场都在等它先砸完），那么它凭什么享有很高的溢价？\n\n当然，我认为目前mstr 7折的折扣在牛市中大概率也会被抹平，但与其去投这样一家“基金公司”去帮我炒btc，我可能更愿意相信我自己。", "date": "2026-08-02 13:10:16", "date_only": "2026-08-02", "timestamp": 1785676216.0, "likes": 245, "retweets": 12, "replies": 124, "views": 86127, "isReply": false, "text_len": 720, "curation_score": 698.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2083903210121515343", "substance_score": 6.29, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.45, "jev_depth": 2.58, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 6.29, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2065307748611592676", "text": "最近有不少朋友来问我为什么跟crcl杠上了，AI这么火为什么不去追AI？\n\n其实不是跟Crcl杠上了，AI标的和其他山寨币我都在玩，但是在做短线交易，我不可能开个单就发个帖子。\n\n最近我在想的一个问题：如果让我挑一批可以长拿并且现在可以建仓的标的，有哪些要求？符合这些要求的标的有哪些？\n\n想了想，我对于建仓长拿标的的要求是：\n1. 持仓周期是至少放心拿3-5年（这个“放心”很重要，因为我自己要足够懂它的周期，或者它自身已经有足够长的时间证明自己，比如qqq）\n2. 标的在一个快速增长的市场里，有至少5-10年的可预见增长（有足够的成长股安全垫），且有足够好的护城河\n3. 现在价格相对低价（因为如果是长拿就不怕等建仓机会，短线则无所谓，今天追了，下周平了我也无所谓什么估值高低，主要还是看情绪）\n\n在我的认知里（有分歧很正常）：\n盘一盘哪些明显不符合以上要求？哪些有些符合？哪些全都符合？还有哪些是我不确定的？\n\n首先明显不符合的：几乎所有中概股，A股，黄金白银贵金属（年初就已经看顶），山寨币（包括eth，eth比较适合做周期波段交易）\n\n符合1和2要求的标的：Apple，Nvda，Google，QQQ，OEF\n\n符合123要求的标的：涉及到3就一定不会是AI相关的标的，而在Crypto赛道，BTC，Crcl（其实我也想把Hype加进去，但严格按这个标准来说，还不是）\n\n那些我不确定的：\n存储股：三星，海力士，SNDK，MU。不符合3，符合2，不确定符不符合1\nMag7的其他家：微软，Meta，Tesla，我不那么确定\n消费类的价值股：符合1和3，不符合2\nAI产业链更细分的就更不在我的开枪范围了，因为我不够懂，比如光通信的Lumentum，Coherent，Nokia，芯片的Marvell，博通，这些跟着qqq的波动做做短线得了，让我重仓梭进去追高我也拿不住，更不会知道什么时候该止损。\n\n现在是crypto每四年一次的播种季，麻将固然好玩，但不能误了农时，不然明年这个时候又要愁下一把麻将钱去哪找了。", "date": "2026-06-12 05:38:33", "date_only": "2026-06-12", "timestamp": 1781242713.0, "likes": 210, "retweets": 21, "replies": 42, "views": 75618, "isReply": false, "text_len": 862, "curation_score": 824.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2065307748611592676", "substance_score": 6.074, "jev_is_substantive": 0.95, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.47, "jev_depth": 2.38, "jev_has_rule": 0.13, "quality_score": 6.074, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2067162038552694865", "text": "都说被锁在外面的几十亿人才是代币化股票的真实市场。\n\n阿根廷人想买SPY，尼日利亚人想买NVDA，土耳其人想持有美元资产，中国人想配置海外资产。美国vc问“谁会买tokenized stocks”，其实是在问“为什么不用Robinhood”。\n\n可这几十亿人压根没法用robinhood\n\n我觉得这个结论是对的，但是只对一半\n\n他们很多时候要的其实是美元，股票只是个顺手能买到的壳。\n\n过去几年真正爆的是稳定币和链上国债，股票这层一直不温不火。\n\n但这反而让我越想越在意另一件事。\n\n2009年crypto的梦是绕开银行、绕开美元、绕开华尔街、绕开主权。2026年最成功的crypto产品，清一色在帮全球更多人持有美国资产。\n\n很多人管这叫tradfi上链，但真正在发生的，是crypto变成了美元体系的新分销渠道。\n\n最骚的是美国现在不拦了，反手给稳定币立法开绿灯。因为华盛顿想明白了，链上美元和链上国债是它最好的出口渠道，铺进了资本管制和银行进不去的地方。当年想干掉帝国的那套去中心化轨道，成了帝国最高效的运货车。\n\n所以哪天几十亿人是通过钱包、不是券商进入美国资本市场。\n\n这到底算crypto赢了，还是美元赢了？\n\n我倾向后者，但也可能我太悲观。", "date": "2026-06-17 08:26:50", "date_only": "2026-06-17", "timestamp": 1781684810.0, "likes": 0, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 0, "isReply": false, "text_len": 527, "curation_score": 145.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2067162038552694865", "substance_score": 5.483, "jev_is_substantive": 0.96, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.92, "jev_depth": 2.37, "jev_has_rule": 0.01, "quality_score": 5.483, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2071440177621561628", "text": "现在就是把做空键抠掉，然后根据你对底部的判断，去计划抄底时间表的时候。比如你看最低到5w，那就6w、5w、分别抄1/3，然后留1/3到万一跌到4w抄，就算跌不到4w，这部分资金也可以灵活配置，到时候牛初启动了追涨也行。周期底部的时候最忌讳的就是觉得自己能完美判断底，一点容错空间不给自己留的。", "date": "2026-06-29 03:46:38", "date_only": "2026-06-29", "timestamp": 1782704798.0, "likes": 78, "retweets": 8, "replies": 2, "views": 12702, "isReply": true, "text_len": 146, "curation_score": 206.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2071440177621561628", "substance_score": 5.837, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 2.23, "jev_has_rule": 0.53, "quality_score": 5.837, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2033738181137600839", "text": "正好前几天有小伙伴问我怎么看CRCL，就拿这个方法来看大区间的交易机会，走势已经出higher high了，跌了半年多的趋势开始逆转了，你要想进就等个higher low再进，赌不会出lower low，如果出了就止损跑 https://t.co/FqiTp4VV8K", "date": "2026-03-17 02:52:22", "date_only": "2026-03-17", "timestamp": 1773715942.0, "likes": 131, "retweets": 7, "replies": 38, "views": 212681, "isReply": false, "text_len": 134, "curation_score": 522.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2033738181137600839_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2033738181137600839", "substance_score": 6.609999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.53, "jev_depth": 2.12, "jev_has_rule": 0.85, "quality_score": 6.609999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2083230993058848781", "text": "刚又把早上出掉的存储仓位捡回来一些，这次仓位开了不到昨天的一半。逻辑是，我的判断是这个位置虽然没昨天博反弹的交易setup这么清晰，但如果昨天是阶段大底的观点不变（利空出尽，悬着的财报季和fomc均已落地，最大的多头杠杆清掉，市场情绪出现拐点），一天40%的反弹，开盘回调十几个点让获利盘和套", "date": "2026-07-31 16:39:07", "date_only": "2026-07-31", "timestamp": 1785515947.0, "likes": 137, "retweets": 8, "replies": 22, "views": 149598, "isReply": false, "text_len": 146, "curation_score": 564.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2083230993058848781", "substance_score": 5.409, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.5, "jev_depth": 2.09, "jev_has_rule": 0.11, "quality_score": 5.409, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1995495034444210664", "text": "围绕着这些确定因子，就可以推导出行为了，比如：\n1. 空投不卖我不买\n2. 投资人开始解锁的币我只空\n3. 高开大概率空，低开看看有没有机会买\n4. 没新预期的项目不玩（因为没新预期做市商就没吸引散户当退出流动性的钩子，也就不会拉盘）\n5.", "date": "2025-12-01 14:07:45", "date_only": "2025-12-01", "timestamp": 1764598065.0, "likes": 114, "retweets": 11, "replies": 12, "views": 16381, "isReply": true, "text_len": 120, "curation_score": 306.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1995495034444210664", "substance_score": 5.983, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.89, "jev_depth": 2.09, "jev_has_rule": 0.87, "quality_score": 5.983, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2074101707236430271", "text": "回应一下第一个点，虽然不是说这种技术指标就该刻舟求剑，但就结果上看，因为这轮宏观没有放水，BTC周期顶部确实没有不是hype顶。\n\n图一是月线RSI\n图二是MVRV\n\n可以参考前几轮的看一下 https://t.co/KlFegIaRAb", "date": "2026-07-06 12:02:36", "date_only": "2026-07-06", "timestamp": 1783339356.0, "likes": 42, "retweets": 4, "replies": 17, "views": 31690, "isReply": false, "text_len": 119, "curation_score": 258.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2074101707236430271_0.png", "images/2074101707236430271_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2074101707236430271", "substance_score": 5.666999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 2.09, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.666999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1936237849940312068", "text": "行情走的挺不健康的，尤其是sol，4月初跌到95，出现超卖，反弹了近一倍然后继续派发，标准周期派发形态，可以参考下上轮。这里想赌是二探的可以110-120左右抄，但破了一定要快跑，如果100再破了大家可以彻底2025年歇逼出去旅游了😅 https://t.co/CHU69U1t9d", "date": "2025-06-21 01:40:51", "date_only": "2025-06-21", "timestamp": 1750470051.0, "likes": 199, "retweets": 15, "replies": 58, "views": 94892, "isReply": false, "text_len": 141, "curation_score": 638.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1936237849940312068_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1936237849940312068", "substance_score": 6.582, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 2.08, "jev_has_rule": 0.83, "quality_score": 6.582, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1966856206410285391", "text": "这周没好友来访，得了个清净的周六晚上盯盯盘整理下思路，趁着最近大家讨论降息后的仓位管理，也聊聊我对降息后市的看法是什么，以及我的操作。\n\n先聊聊事实：\n咱们刻舟求个剑，整理了一下过去50年共11轮美元降息周期里，降息后标普500的1个月、3个月、12个月表现（加密货币会跟着美股走）： https://t.co/32XTQ5I0wX", "date": "2025-09-13 13:27:16", "date_only": "2025-09-13", "timestamp": 1757770036.0, "likes": 297, "retweets": 41, "replies": 52, "views": 65991, "isReply": false, "text_len": 166, "curation_score": 705.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1966856206410285391_0.png", "images/1966856206410285391_1.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1966856206410285391", "substance_score": 5.869999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 2.06, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 5.869999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2033734220678631537", "text": "之前聊过这个话题，熊市不要盯着突破做交易，或者觉得某个区间破了行情就来了，小区间的突破放大一个区间你会发现一百个阻力位。\n\n牛市多Bear Trap，熊市多Bull Trap，但趋势是你的朋友，盯着lower high和lower low你就不会对趋势错判， 要做右侧就等趋势变了再去做，在此之前任何突破都当烟雾弹。 https://t.co/ZyFfz95DgV", "date": "2026-03-17 02:36:37", "date_only": "2026-03-17", "timestamp": 1773714997.0, "likes": 182, "retweets": 23, "replies": 26, "views": 66839, "isReply": false, "text_len": 182, "curation_score": 605.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2033734220678631537_0.jpg", "images/2033734220678631537_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2033734220678631537", "substance_score": 6.202999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.96, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.78, "jev_depth": 2.05, "jev_has_rule": 0.19, "quality_score": 6.202999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2071437321661256072", "text": "给大家个建议，就算你觉得还有最后一跌，现在也一定一定不要再空单思维了。没人知道周期底部是5w还是4w，但节奏很关键，假设你6w抄一半，就算极限跌到4万，你再抄一半，平均成本5w只比现在价格跌了16%，但如果这个位置你开着空单，反弹到7w（完全有可能），你同样也是亏16%，而这种反弹会把你的节奏完", "date": "2026-06-29 03:35:17", "date_only": "2026-06-29", "timestamp": 1782704117.0, "likes": 408, "retweets": 34, "replies": 35, "views": 335162, "isReply": false, "text_len": 148, "curation_score": 707.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2071437321661256072", "substance_score": 5.604, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.88, "jev_depth": 2.04, "jev_has_rule": 0.23, "quality_score": 5.604, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1898718408101003399", "text": "之前提醒过很多次了，再啰嗦一遍🥲，链上发行的币，上了大CEX以后，一律不能在二级接，DEX的涨幅空间越大、控筹越低、上了CEX就越不能接。因为价格发现的过程都在DEX上完成了，上CEX就出货是散户、项目方、MM和各利益方的共识，所以大家都会上了就抢跑，就算项目方不弃盘，想拉第二波也得先把第一波套", "date": "2025-03-09 12:51:59", "date_only": "2025-03-09", "timestamp": 1741524719.0, "likes": 258, "retweets": 39, "replies": 53, "views": 113242, "isReply": false, "text_len": 148, "curation_score": 707.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1898718408101003399", "substance_score": 5.936, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.65, "jev_depth": 2.04, "jev_has_rule": 0.62, "quality_score": 5.936, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1997399261177384960", "text": "@bitfool1 说来如果是一个长期的bet，为啥要在降息周期初买usdc呢，他的利润只会越来越少，美股投资人是不会去拿P/发行量给usdc估值的，而如果又是个多头垄断的市场，usdt上市后，usdc会有明显的估值折扣。而如果你赌的是crypto市场后面仍是牛市，那为什么买的是circle而不是coinbase（牛市里交易量的增量一定是", "date": "2025-12-06 20:14:28", "date_only": "2025-12-06", "timestamp": 1765052068.0, "likes": 52, "retweets": 6, "replies": 8, "views": 12076, "isReply": true, "text_len": 170, "curation_score": 190.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1997399261177384960", "substance_score": 5.0, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.45, "jev_depth": 2.04, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.0, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2025840693906985281", "text": "这波下跌周期里第一次抄ETH，长期是不是底不好说，底是需要磨出来的，但这个位置来个反弹问题不大，这波ETH在币安的换手量跟FTX暴雷时持平，上一次这么大的换手量是近4年前，这还是ETH在CEX的交易量已经被ETF和DAT稀释的情况下，实际惨烈情况应该跟3AC那会儿差不多了。 https://t.co/Cihnlglc2b", "date": "2026-02-23 07:50:34", "date_only": "2026-02-23", "timestamp": 1771833034.0, "likes": 204, "retweets": 14, "replies": 46, "views": 202907, "isReply": false, "text_len": 161, "curation_score": 662.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2025840693906985281_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2025840693906985281", "substance_score": 6.021, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.75, "jev_depth": 2.03, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 6.021, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2070146612031377774", "text": "STRC继续跳水，这种飞轮向下螺旋的时候千万别接飞刀。\n\n现在MSTR面临的窘境：\n卖BTC还利息 = 高位建仓，低位割肉\n普通股对应btc的nav有折扣时增发mstr买BTC = 减少每股btc含量\n\n在MSTR不解决STRC问题之前，市场是不会形成有效接盘力量的，都在等着雷被拆掉或者雷爆掉。 https://t.co/XjkCtpkImo", "date": "2026-06-25 14:06:28", "date_only": "2026-06-25", "timestamp": 1782396388.0, "likes": 155, "retweets": 11, "replies": 89, "views": 56266, "isReply": false, "text_len": 172, "curation_score": 513.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2070146612031377774_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2070146612031377774", "substance_score": 5.935, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.58, "jev_depth": 2.03, "jev_has_rule": 0.12, "quality_score": 5.935, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2051238349629976751", "text": "hyperliquid和币安的周末价格发现的逻辑不太一样。币安会冻结指数价格，周末有资金把价格冲的偏离指数价格的话费率就会容易出现极值，hyperliquid周中会用外部定价，周末则会切换成外部定价+ema平滑机制去削减周末的费率极值。 https://t.co/MPKTATITOk", "date": "2026-05-04 09:51:47", "date_only": "2026-05-04", "timestamp": 1777888307.0, "likes": 83, "retweets": 7, "replies": 30, "views": 27163, "isReply": false, "text_len": 142, "curation_score": 304.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2051238349629976751_0.jpg", "images/2051238349629976751_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2051238349629976751", "substance_score": 5.715, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.83, "jev_depth": 2.03, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 5.715, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1905319764026876408", "text": "不该一次性上四个的，最明显的是mubarak上了现货之后不涨反砸，成sell the news了，流动性本来就差，四个标的市场根本没法合力，都在找最便宜的上，而不是合力追龙头，如果这波上现货效果不好，bsc接下来的链上流动性会加速退潮。", "date": "2025-03-27 18:03:25", "date_only": "2025-03-27", "timestamp": 1743098605.0, "likes": 247, "retweets": 14, "replies": 88, "views": 123753, "isReply": false, "text_len": 118, "curation_score": 647.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1905319764026876408", "substance_score": 5.403, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.78, "jev_depth": 2.01, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 5.403, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2074122994251857985", "text": "买存储股本质上就是在炒存储的商品价格，跟你看涨石油买石油公司本质上没区别。比如美光，过去一年7成的收入增长来源于单位价格涨价，传导到净利润层面，8成来源于单位价格涨价。 https://t.co/4n9A4JjwhJ", "date": "2026-07-06 13:27:11", "date_only": "2026-07-06", "timestamp": 1783344431.0, "likes": 156, "retweets": 17, "replies": 26, "views": 174493, "isReply": false, "text_len": 108, "curation_score": 590.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2074122994251857985_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2074122994251857985", "substance_score": 5.8309999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 2.01, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.8309999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1965941085752144285", "text": "一个月前写Pump这篇帖子的时候，Pump刚从Bonk手里抢回市场份额并开始回购，那会儿回购了1%不到，到今天已经回购了6.15%了，不到30天时间从市场上收回来了超过5%的流通筹码（这还是最近链上很枯的时候），一共就33%在外面，下一次解锁要等到26年年中，按这种收法，流通盘会越来越少，价格到后面越容易螺 https://t.co/HlKgrDlc3W", "date": "2025-09-11 00:50:54", "date_only": "2025-09-11", "timestamp": 1757551854.0, "likes": 113, "retweets": 10, "replies": 31, "views": 66855, "isReply": false, "text_len": 178, "curation_score": 423.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1965941085752144285_0.jpg", "images/1965941085752144285_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1965941085752144285", "substance_score": 5.664999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.41, "jev_depth": 2.01, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.664999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1991759714041098565", "text": "@wf62mm9mxz @follow_clues 我觉得你可能需要理解下convertible debt是什么。\n\n是否转换成股票的权利在债权人，而不是mstr决定，这也是为什么mstr的债大部分都是0利率的。本质上你如果借钱给了mstr，就是把你的债的利息换一个btc的远期期权。", "date": "2025-11-21 06:44:55", "date_only": "2025-11-21", "timestamp": 1763707495.0, "likes": 8, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 1082, "isReply": true, "text_len": 142, "curation_score": 54.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1991759714041098565", "substance_score": 4.647, "jev_is_substantive": 0.8, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 2.01, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.647, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2077800519205323180", "text": "我发现这波被套在存储上的人全都是盯着低p/e和存储需求仍然很坚挺被套的。\n\n但只要你想明白了今年存储公司利润的暴涨几乎都是asp涨价带来的，你炒存储股跟炒内存条的价格本质上没区别时，可能也就没这么fomo，止损起来也就没这么难了。", "date": "2026-07-16 17:00:22", "date_only": "2026-07-16", "timestamp": 1784221222.0, "likes": 232, "retweets": 24, "replies": 48, "views": 73146, "isReply": false, "text_len": 115, "curation_score": 638.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2077800519205323180", "substance_score": 5.4, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.66, "jev_depth": 2.0, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 5.4, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2094282053781164082", "text": "这轮我们很难再看到纯meme的市值能达到上一轮的高度了，哪怕是之前的20%。上轮周期的meme上了cex之后，二级的大户和机构提供了非常大的买盘，所以我们看到了pnut neiro act这些meme在上了币安之后仍然有着不错的涨幅，而最终筹码从链上几乎全部转移到了二级的机构和散户手里。但苦了这些二级机构，上轮敢在二级收筹坐庄的都亏肿了，也有被直接献祭的。\n\nmeme控筹永远是核心问题，链上的meme在二级控筹太贵了，控的好的有个80%就不错了，不可能让二级庄控到95%以上去做妖币操盘的，而且现在还在币圈玩的大资金都是聪明钱了，看你控筹控的差不多了就不跟你玩了，之前的大Neiro，控完筹就被下架，还有最近的币安人生，越拉OI越低，我都想不到他们怎么收回成本。", "date": "2026-08-31 04:32:06", "date_only": "2026-08-31", "timestamp": 1788150726.0, "likes": 201, "retweets": 12, "replies": 59, "views": 142392, "isReply": false, "text_len": 333, "curation_score": 711.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2094282053781164082", "substance_score": 5.274, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 2.0, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.274, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2097304406316261653", "text": "多建了一些BNC的仓位，细说下逻辑：\n1. 目前BNC这家美股财库公司持有的bnb大概4个亿美金，但公司市值只有2亿，折扣有50%。\n2. 今天four meme发bnc池的meme，然后cz去转发bnc的内容，币安内部想推动BNB DAT的意图很明显了\n3. https://t.co/mKTRebHHPV", "date": "2026-09-08 12:41:51", "date_only": "2026-09-08", "timestamp": 1788871311.0, "likes": 149, "retweets": 21, "replies": 62, "views": 92377, "isReply": false, "text_len": 154, "curation_score": 681.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2097304406316261653_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2097304406316261653", "substance_score": 5.7059999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.85, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.38, "jev_depth": 2.0, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.7059999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2082798877707792691", "text": "反弹逻辑是什么？\n几个hyperscaler财报都出了，不减capex不影响基本面。美联储会议落地，短期利好，虽然7月没加意味着9月加息概率大，但还是给8月初资金冲一波的时间。韩国那边开始讨论如何救市了。sk会长刚抄底海力士了。价格还可以，前低止损位也很清晰。", "date": "2026-07-30 12:02:03", "date_only": "2026-07-30", "timestamp": 1785412923.0, "likes": 132, "retweets": 11, "replies": 28, "views": 95686, "isReply": false, "text_len": 130, "curation_score": 542.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2082798877707792691", "substance_score": 5.5, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.85, "jev_depth": 2.0, "jev_has_rule": 0.39, "quality_score": 5.5, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2025842396718825954", "text": "这就是我抄底三条件中说的第一条（投降式的换手量），而对于BTC，CEX内虽然还没看到这样的投降式换手，但ETF中却有出现（IBIT占了BTC ETF 60%左右的AUM，二级换手有出巨量），这也比较符合这轮机构+ETF驱动BTC周期的特点。 https://t.co/Cn28zYTaHc", "date": "2026-02-23 07:57:20", "date_only": "2026-02-23", "timestamp": 1771833440.0, "likes": 46, "retweets": 1, "replies": 6, "views": 14982, "isReply": true, "text_len": 144, "curation_score": 142.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2025842396718825954_0.png", "images/2025842396718825954_1.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2025842396718825954", "substance_score": 5.672, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.5, "jev_depth": 2.0, "jev_has_rule": 0.12, "quality_score": 5.672, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2019441976803037288", "text": "这个位置想抄的，不是说不能抄，一定会有反弹，但熊市接针博反弹是个性价比特别差的交易。\n\n熊市越后期反弹越弱。你赌个10-15%的周反弹，但往下10-15%一天就能完成，博反弹不如等反弹空。", "date": "2026-02-05 16:04:21", "date_only": "2026-02-05", "timestamp": 1770307461.0, "likes": 211, "retweets": 30, "replies": 23, "views": 76159, "isReply": false, "text_len": 94, "curation_score": 632.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2019441976803037288", "substance_score": 5.461, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.85, "jev_depth": 1.99, "jev_has_rule": 0.12, "quality_score": 5.461, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2069985221941060008", "text": "趋势的反转需要时间，不管是熊转牛还是牛转熊，越成熟的资产反转需要的时间越久，而相对应的，趋势持续的时间也就越久。但很多人的策略里只有看空和看多的观点，并不包含时间这个因子，有可能你对一个资产的观点是对了，但交易就是做错了，你如果看好一个资产未来5-10年，不应该被未来5-10天的波动影响了决策，相对应的，如果你看好一个资产未来5-10天的价格，就不要被一个资产未来5-10年的叙事洗了脑。\n\nknow the timeframe you trade", "date": "2026-06-25 03:25:10", "date_only": "2026-06-25", "timestamp": 1782357910.0, "likes": 192, "retweets": 20, "replies": 101, "views": 58254, "isReply": false, "text_len": 225, "curation_score": 594.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2069985221941060008", "substance_score": 5.374, "jev_is_substantive": 0.95, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.98, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 5.374, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2051184930542235757", "text": "币安的费率问题不止在cl和bz，贵金属和美股都有问题，今天凌晨的crcl费率一度是0.4%-0.6%，同一时间hyperliquid上费率就是正常的0.001%以下，上个月有个周末更是夸张，几个小时-1.5%的费率，有这种极值情况基本没法在币安拿tradifi的单子了，可能一天不注意，利润全被费率吃了，我目前的美股和贵金属单 https://t.co/BoRZbXlvzf", "date": "2026-05-04 06:19:31", "date_only": "2026-05-04", "timestamp": 1777875571.0, "likes": 168, "retweets": 20, "replies": 81, "views": 180490, "isReply": false, "text_len": 187, "curation_score": 732.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2051184930542235757_0.jpg", "images/2051184930542235757_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2051184930542235757", "substance_score": 5.538, "jev_is_substantive": 0.76, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.77, "jev_depth": 1.98, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.538, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2071743936998375533", "text": "最近有朋友问我，怎么看银行巨头们自己下场做稳定币？会不会颠覆Circle的生意，我来回答一下。\n\n稳定币生意的护城河是仅次于BTC的存在，这是一个又要铺渠道，又要搞定用户心智，又要搞定合规的生意，先发玩家的优势巨大，因为从用户的角度几乎没有任何切换的理由。\n\n这么多年下来，最终跑出来的只有USDT和USDC两家，一个依托早期crypto爆发带来的先发优势，一个依托美国合规体系和链上defi后崛起。\n\n- 币安扶持过三次新的稳定币，BUSD, FDUSD, TUSD，都没做起来\n- Hyperliquid做了USDH，没做起来\n- 火币做了HUSD，没做起来\n- OKX早期通过oklink做过USDK，没做起来\n- Gemini做了GUSD，没做起来\n- Kraken做了USDG，没做起来\n- Tron做了USDD，没做起来\n- 其他的稳定币更不用说了，算稳要么已经暴雷，要么存量一直在萎缩的过程中\n\n币圈里拥有最多流动性，最大分销网络，最多交易场景，现成的用户的最大的几家交易所和公链都尝试无数次且失败的事情，你觉得JP morgan下场做能做好？这些老牌金融机构上上轮周期的叙事是要做crypto交易所，做明白一点了吗？", "date": "2026-06-29 23:53:40", "date_only": "2026-06-29", "timestamp": 1782777220.0, "likes": 295, "retweets": 30, "replies": 80, "views": 125076, "isReply": false, "text_len": 516, "curation_score": 780.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2071743936998375533", "substance_score": 5.243, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.4, "jev_depth": 1.97, "jev_has_rule": 0.01, "quality_score": 5.243, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1973723915760595453", "text": "说说今晚2z的交易策略，8点上alpha，8:30上合约，9点upbit和bn现货，这种合约和现货中间有时间差的，合约出来我大概率会先观望，等upbit开了看有没有溢价，有溢价就等溢价平了空他，没溢价就直接空，70亿的fdv，接盘是接不动。先这么计划着，一会儿开盘再看。", "date": "2025-10-02 12:17:06", "date_only": "2025-10-02", "timestamp": 1759407426.0, "likes": 113, "retweets": 6, "replies": 24, "views": 39146, "isReply": false, "text_len": 135, "curation_score": 370.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1973723915760595453", "substance_score": 5.609, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.97, "jev_has_rule": 0.73, "quality_score": 5.609, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2024910234050003398", "text": "同感，pepe抄了一些，bes没建仓，博个反弹。逻辑是如果是赌山寨反弹，都得盯着eth，pepe就是eth alpha增强版，过去几波反弹你如果盯过，你应该知道pepe前几天都是领涨，而且可以观察对比下11月至今pepe和eth的价格，明显已经跌不动了。", "date": "2026-02-20 18:13:15", "date_only": "2026-02-20", "timestamp": 1771611195.0, "likes": 99, "retweets": 7, "replies": 40, "views": 57567, "isReply": false, "text_len": 127, "curation_score": 419.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2024910234050003398", "substance_score": 4.937, "jev_is_substantive": 0.85, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.5, "jev_depth": 1.97, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 4.937, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2067484137200734287", "text": "现在再回头看，strc的崩盘就是卖币开始的。账上现金还有11亿，够偿还8个月，脱锚期间这个融资工具是废了，还要通过继续稀释普通股融资和卖btc去偿还strc的利息。\n\n为什么saylor怎么喊“strc股息很稳定”价格就是回不去？因为大家都知道，你一旦开始卖btc，市场只会合力跟你往下卖。 https://t.co/i03k7hkU5x", "date": "2026-06-18 05:46:44", "date_only": "2026-06-18", "timestamp": 1781761604.0, "likes": 196, "retweets": 20, "replies": 23, "views": 113375, "isReply": false, "text_len": 169, "curation_score": 674.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2067484137200734287_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2067484137200734287", "substance_score": 5.776, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.54, "jev_depth": 1.96, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.776, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2042375275527430204", "text": "刚抄了一批circle, 准备中期拿一拿，不说长线逻辑了，就说说中短期的：\n1. Tether这轮募资定价5000亿美金，circle现在市值200多亿美金，usdc目前的总规模780亿美金，接近usdt 1840亿的一半。假设tether募资成功，美股资金一定会去对标tether，主打合规的龙二有龙一的10%的价格都有500亿美金。\n\n2. https://t.co/ZEuH5lZXDQ", "date": "2026-04-09 22:53:05", "date_only": "2026-04-09", "timestamp": 1775775185.0, "likes": 184, "retweets": 21, "replies": 23, "views": 209020, "isReply": false, "text_len": 196, "curation_score": 789.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2042375275527430204_0.jpg", "images/2042375275527430204_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2042375275527430204", "substance_score": 5.816, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.69, "jev_depth": 1.96, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.816, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1929721839456231496", "text": "可以找找空cookie的机会，不说具体点位了，说几个逻辑：\n1. 开质押给空投开始派发（懂的都懂），最近密集打广告找买盘\n2. 但合约oi一直在减少，每波拉升诱多庄都在找对手盘平多单\n3. 比如5/26那波上插爆空单，庄拿对手盘平了一大波多单 https://t.co/Fw19xEeRGV", "date": "2025-06-03 02:08:33", "date_only": "2025-06-03", "timestamp": 1748916513.0, "likes": 179, "retweets": 14, "replies": 53, "views": 55544, "isReply": false, "text_len": 145, "curation_score": 616.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1929721839456231496_0.jpg", "images/1929721839456231496_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1929721839456231496", "substance_score": 5.645999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.96, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.645999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1894849866083541411", "text": "这几天会着重盯二级，提前画几个sol的关键防线，如果反弹很弱，会直接抛了再等下一道，别着急，这才跌了一个半月都不到，这种级别的回调需要月级别的周期消化，就算反弹也会被砸下去试二探甚至三探，大的还没来，我还在等一根爆仓的线，开始抄第一批时会说。 https://t.co/v0sLcewJAq", "date": "2025-02-26 20:39:47", "date_only": "2025-02-26", "timestamp": 1740602387.0, "likes": 176, "retweets": 10, "replies": 54, "views": 137255, "isReply": false, "text_len": 145, "curation_score": 614.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1894849866083541411_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1894849866083541411", "substance_score": 6.188000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.96, "jev_has_rule": 0.47, "quality_score": 6.188000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2067770149613035908", "text": "算是ct最早一批看空strc的人，且是在发行最fomo的时候连发几篇坚决看空，但确实没想到雷来的这么快。\n\n这次市场要给所有看多strc的人上一个常识课：“一个无息资产是无法长期支付11.5%的利息的”\n\n前段时间底部抄的btc&eth先跑了，这种雷不解决之前真不敢拿，crcl的定投还在进行中。", "date": "2026-06-19 00:43:15", "date_only": "2026-06-19", "timestamp": 1781829795.0, "likes": 151, "retweets": 10, "replies": 25, "views": 104886, "isReply": false, "text_len": 152, "curation_score": 636.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2067770149613035908", "substance_score": 5.1419999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.68, "jev_depth": 1.96, "jev_has_rule": 0.1, "quality_score": 5.1419999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1859209605638762797", "text": "@web3foxcn @gmgnai @haze0x 细说一下，早期pump有庄的盘子会尽量低调然后洗degen和bot，你看到线非常平，然后爆砸爆拉就是在洗，你这时候去抢筹码直接rug或者让你觉得rug了，等你走了再接回来。你看到什么时候线开始有做市商的机器人进来去上下波动，同一个地址买买然后卖卖的就是机器人的囤货和洗量钱包。", "date": "2024-11-20 12:18:07", "date_only": "2024-11-20", "timestamp": 1732105087.0, "likes": 55, "retweets": 3, "replies": 5, "views": 6645, "isReply": true, "text_len": 165, "curation_score": 129.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1859209605638762797", "substance_score": 4.89, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.84, "jev_depth": 1.96, "jev_has_rule": 0.11, "quality_score": 4.89, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2021136494493389027", "text": "@Vida_BWE 牛市的时候容易募资，不好出手，熊市的时候难募资，但好出手，华人基金募资大多只能募个两三年duration的基金，LP都不是北美那种耐心钱，道理gp们都懂，但如果牛市募到钱一直等机会，可能没等到机会，基金就要到期了，还不如赌一波，反正不是自己的钱。所以要想赚周期的钱，不能做crypto基金的LP😅", "date": "2026-02-10 08:17:45", "date_only": "2026-02-10", "timestamp": 1770711465.0, "likes": 35, "retweets": 1, "replies": 0, "views": 4604, "isReply": true, "text_len": 158, "curation_score": 89.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2021136494493389027", "substance_score": 4.818, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.64, "jev_depth": 1.96, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.818, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1936342189355016192", "text": "@0xDave852 不同币做空策略不太一样，高控盘有主动做市痕迹的腰币前戏太多的话，就等他彻底开始派发了再空，比如1小时可能骗炮，1天大的派发线绝对实了。而且这种一旦开始派发，就会派发彻底才会在底部吸筹，这个周期可能是几周甚至上月的。", "date": "2025-06-21 08:35:28", "date_only": "2025-06-21", "timestamp": 1750494928.0, "likes": 20, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 2450, "isReply": true, "text_len": 118, "curation_score": 74.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1936342189355016192", "substance_score": 5.072, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.93, "jev_depth": 1.96, "jev_has_rule": 0.29, "quality_score": 5.072, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1933568934437138549", "text": "我一直觉得山寨币的困境不是流动性问题，而是能活到现在的韭菜确实没什么人还信“故事”了，控筹率就算搞到99%，基本面不行，花钱去搞mindshare，靠嘴怎么喊上去的，就怎么下来，宣发带来的买盘可能还不够cover成本。但看Aave和Hyperliquid，这俩硬的就像还在山寨牛市。这跟美股挺像的，大盘流动性再怎么", "date": "2025-06-13 16:55:32", "date_only": "2025-06-13", "timestamp": 1749833732.0, "likes": 270, "retweets": 32, "replies": 61, "views": 187329, "isReply": false, "text_len": 157, "curation_score": 731.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1933568934437138549", "substance_score": 5.221, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.96, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.221, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1967113453522575624", "text": "这轮周期筛山寨币只需要三个条件，可以对着你的持仓筛一遍：\n1. 经历过至少一波洗盘（现在tge都要给各种相关方币，交易所、预售、做市商、营销agency、空投的、顾问的等等，这些人不是Holder，TGE后筹码如果没经历过再集中的过程，价格很难上去）\n2.", "date": "2025-09-14 06:29:29", "date_only": "2025-09-14", "timestamp": 1757831369.0, "likes": 256, "retweets": 38, "replies": 43, "views": 57581, "isReply": false, "text_len": 128, "curation_score": 724.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1967113453522575624", "substance_score": 5.353, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.11, "quality_score": 5.353, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1972596624011702704", "text": "说个二级做空的小Tip，一段大胆空，二段别空。\n\n核心逻辑还是控筹，一段刚发币的时候项目方是控不住筹的，TGE要给交易所、社区、agency、kol还有各种相关方代币，这就是为什么大部分项目方开盘采取的是高开策略，因为低开在控筹不紧的情况下，如果市场没有很好的情绪一起合力，靠自己拉根本拉不上去。 https://t.co/dL6y7r5JWv", "date": "2025-09-29 09:37:38", "date_only": "2025-09-29", "timestamp": 1759138658.0, "likes": 218, "retweets": 26, "replies": 23, "views": 34550, "isReply": false, "text_len": 172, "curation_score": 582.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1972596624011702704_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1972596624011702704", "substance_score": 6.109, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.33, "quality_score": 6.109, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2082534074544202135", "text": "不觉得没加息是好事，刚还在跟朋友说，希望这次加息，这次没加意味着8月就要博弈9月要不要加息了，市场预期今年至少一次的话，这个月不加，9月概率就会大很多，靴子没落地前风险资产都很难冲的动。", "date": "2026-07-29 18:29:49", "date_only": "2026-07-29", "timestamp": 1785349789.0, "likes": 176, "retweets": 3, "replies": 72, "views": 63990, "isReply": false, "text_len": 93, "curation_score": 506.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2082534074544202135", "substance_score": 5.133, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.133, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1905424362217590819", "text": "我看很多人说买tut的逻辑是这次上币中市值最低所以值得梭（四千多万），banana和broccoli才六千多万，那假设tut涨到六千多万或者broccoli和banana跌到四千多万，tut不再是市值最低的，那到时候该继续持有tut的理由是什么？为什么不换仓到banana和broccoli呢？“买龙尾”压根就不是一个成立的逻辑，因为市 https://t.co/Ti7LXAhXYu", "date": "2025-03-28 00:59:03", "date_only": "2025-03-28", "timestamp": 1743123543.0, "likes": 144, "retweets": 10, "replies": 48, "views": 63946, "isReply": false, "text_len": 192, "curation_score": 518.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1905424362217590819_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1905424362217590819", "substance_score": 5.553, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.64, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 5.553, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1855617942106615903", "text": "链上从来都是魔高一尺道高一丈的地方，我不指望某个工具可以把dev的所有脏手段都揭开，但这本质是个成本问题，当散户都给自己武装了侦察能力，那dev起盘子的成本就会越来越高，流水盘和rug盘就会在经济上不再有意义，而剩下的则是愿意长期做盘子的格局项目方。在此也感谢所有给散户们武装的工具商们。", "date": "2024-11-10 14:26:07", "date_only": "2024-11-10", "timestamp": 1731248767.0, "likes": 144, "retweets": 3, "replies": 10, "views": 25401, "isReply": true, "text_len": 144, "curation_score": 285.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1855617942106615903", "substance_score": 5.021, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.71, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.021, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1875074698020896825", "text": "沿着这个思路，看完平台和框架再去看AI应用侧，看好两种：\n1. 要么你能切到流动性侧，甚至去切take rate\n2. 要么你是用户交互频率最高的（有实用场景的ai agent，这个大概率还是“赚钱”导向的）\n3. 当然最好是两个都有，想想上轮的defi，最值钱的uni aave就是离流动性最近且交互频率最高的）", "date": "2025-01-03 07:00:19", "date_only": "2025-01-03", "timestamp": 1735887619.0, "likes": 115, "retweets": 15, "replies": 25, "views": 144013, "isReply": false, "text_len": 157, "curation_score": 567.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1875074698020896825", "substance_score": 5.051, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.52, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.051, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2066715348926411196", "text": "不少人可能没意识到为什么中文区对妖币见怪不怪下会如此集体去抗议$H，因为这已经完全脱离了单纯的合约博弈逻辑，散户玩妖币虽然胜率低，至少还能看看oi、链上归集、费率去做判断，$H这种就属于项目方单方面把你的资产没收了还能继续操盘，如果交易所们默许了项目方这种操作，以后大家真的都别玩了，因", "date": "2026-06-16 02:51:51", "date_only": "2026-06-16", "timestamp": 1781578311.0, "likes": 65, "retweets": 2, "replies": 14, "views": 21577, "isReply": false, "text_len": 143, "curation_score": 281.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2066715348926411196", "substance_score": 4.726999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.71, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.726999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1950444348463546803", "text": "二级同理，比如新上bn的标的，你看他开盘高开先让空投砸完，然后到了一个位置几天一直横盘也不拉也不砸，你就知道底部大概是庄在慢慢收回之前空投的零散筹码了，下一步想继续出货前基本都得先拉盘。参考下Sahara的线。", "date": "2025-07-30 06:32:24", "date_only": "2025-07-30", "timestamp": 1753857144.0, "likes": 53, "retweets": 7, "replies": 3, "views": 11535, "isReply": true, "text_len": 105, "curation_score": 148.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1950444348463546803", "substance_score": 4.9110000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.83, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 4.9110000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1836284558184190279", "text": "Sato阴毛庄骚操作真有意思，汇集了4%的筹码发给币安，然后找一堆号推上宣传sato持币第一是币安，制造Sato要上币安的假象，仔细爬一爬地址就能知道全部是早期庄自己狙击地址的筹码，不明所以的人看到第一时间梭满了.....其实用常识想想就知道，上币安这种消息庄会让你知道吗？（参考大Neiro先砸盘90%+） https://t.co/qhnIpxIYFn", "date": "2024-09-18 06:02:09", "date_only": "2024-09-18", "timestamp": 1726639329.0, "likes": 46, "retweets": 1, "replies": 15, "views": 26297, "isReply": false, "text_len": 178, "curation_score": 229.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1836284558184190279_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1836284558184190279", "substance_score": 4.856999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.61, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.38, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.856999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1905345544828190919", "text": "@thecryptoskanda 关键一次性上四个，流动性分散，龙头压着，很难拉出大涨幅的。比如刚才我看到这个公告出来，先看了下，龙头mubarak被砸下去了，tut也拉起来到40m了，其他两个70m市值被mubarak压着，进而也压着tut的市值，几个都没赔率，我想买都不知道该买哪个🤣。如果想cex拉出造富效应，我觉得当时neiro和act那个玩", "date": "2025-03-27 19:45:52", "date_only": "2025-03-27", "timestamp": 1743104752.0, "likes": 15, "retweets": 1, "replies": 2, "views": 4563, "isReply": true, "text_len": 175, "curation_score": 44.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1905345544828190919", "substance_score": 4.478999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.74, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.76, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.478999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1835559504102244456", "text": "@Modashi_NFT 这的确是一个我也曾试图反驳自己看多以太想过的逻辑，但见过了这几年的公链发展，我不太buyin一家独大赢家通吃的市场终极形态了，尤其是对于btc l2这种刚刚开始的新产品来说（有几个散户有btc啊），如果真的这么好颠覆，solana当年就应该已经干掉以太坊了，但事实是还差得远。", "date": "2024-09-16 06:01:03", "date_only": "2024-09-16", "timestamp": 1726466463.0, "likes": 3, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 812, "isReply": true, "text_len": 151, "curation_score": 46.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1835559504102244456", "substance_score": 4.727, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.78, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.727, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2034614497114210525", "text": "@0xmao_eth 你把他的preferred share和debt市值也加上了？按照你的逻辑，普通股的飞轮要想转起来，mstr的价值应该要大于btc的nav啊", "date": "2026-03-19 12:54:32", "date_only": "2026-03-19", "timestamp": 1773924872.0, "likes": 2, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 994, "isReply": true, "text_len": 81, "curation_score": 75.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2034614497114210525", "substance_score": 4.512999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.95, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.512999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1836734143352471698", "text": "@memetodamars 加息前期fed的第一目的是控制通胀，而控制通胀最核心的就是预期管理（所以powell每次都要说我们坚定要控制到2%才收手，因为如果他说3%也可以，那市场一定就会往3%去预期，而不是2%，这样通胀就控制不好了），所以他在这个阶段的发言通常是很鹰派的，他一说话市场就跌。但是到了降息周期，通胀控制的差", "date": "2024-09-19 11:48:39", "date_only": "2024-09-19", "timestamp": 1726746519.0, "likes": 2, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 854, "isReply": true, "text_len": 162, "curation_score": 59.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1836734143352471698", "substance_score": 4.693, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.95, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.693, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1974856132918485201", "text": "好早之前就买过的教训，我在币圈有“两不参与”：\n1. 永远不参与非套利质押\n2. 永远不在第一阶段有造富效应后入场第二阶段（特别是撸毛, 你听过哪个项目一期二期都有大毛的吗？）\n\n本来币圈玩的就是零和博弈的游戏，当大家都挤着去一个地方赚钱，如果都赚钱那谁赔钱呢？", "date": "2025-10-05 15:16:07", "date_only": "2025-10-05", "timestamp": 1759677367.0, "likes": 251, "retweets": 35, "replies": 43, "views": 53141, "isReply": false, "text_len": 131, "curation_score": 691.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1974856132918485201", "substance_score": 5.774000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.75, "jev_depth": 1.94, "jev_has_rule": 0.63, "quality_score": 5.774000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1992022410061869256", "text": "还没搞懂近期MSTR可能被MSCI指数剔除消息的小伙伴们可以看楼总这篇。\n\n省流版：MSTR因持有过多btc可能从MSCI指数中剔除，决议时间明年1月15号。如果从各大指数里剔除，会面临着大量来自于指数基金的抛售（目前指数基金持有约90亿美金的MSTR股票，MSTR市值一共500亿美金）。", "date": "2025-11-22 00:08:47", "date_only": "2025-11-22", "timestamp": 1763770127.0, "likes": 198, "retweets": 19, "replies": 43, "views": 100368, "isReply": false, "text_len": 145, "curation_score": 674.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1992022410061869256", "substance_score": 5.118, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.95, "jev_depth": 1.94, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.118, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2090167925131157597", "text": "我看存储熄火之后不少小伙伴调仓到软件股了（SaaS之类的）。我工作生涯的前5年都在看to b市场投软件公司。我的观点是软件公司会在未来被AI榨干至少80%的价值，越偏向平台生态型的，壁垒相对越强，剩余价值也越多，比如电商类的shopify还有内容创作平台还好一些；越偏向工具性的，壁垒相对越弱，价值也越少。\n\n其实你需要想通一个逻辑，短期内（至少目前是），anthropic吃掉的蛋糕大部分是SaaS的市场，openai吃掉的是个人搜索的市场，grok吃掉的是图片生成的市场。\n\n我是不会去逆着趋势买软件股的，就像我到今天也没真正搞懂为什么段神要买茅台。", "date": "2026-08-19 20:04:01", "date_only": "2026-08-19", "timestamp": 1787169841.0, "likes": 187, "retweets": 7, "replies": 48, "views": 40591, "isReply": false, "text_len": 277, "curation_score": 542.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2090167925131157597", "substance_score": 5.196000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.94, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.196000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2071494829906055613", "text": "Q. 为什么三星和海力士宣布投资扩产计划之后反而跌了？\nA. 这逻辑跟为什么google meta 微软这些云厂商跌了本质上是一样的，现在市场只认业绩，只认现在就能印钱的高margin印钞机的故事，不喜欢投资capex未来才能看到收益的，而且产量一旦上去，意味着高产品溢价，高margin也就没了。 https://t.co/yvGbsSHC36", "date": "2026-06-29 07:23:48", "date_only": "2026-06-29", "timestamp": 1782717828.0, "likes": 170, "retweets": 13, "replies": 40, "views": 108950, "isReply": false, "text_len": 173, "curation_score": 659.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2071494829906055613_0.jpg", "images/2071494829906055613_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2071494829906055613", "substance_score": 5.718, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.94, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.718, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2008089901011771713", "text": "这波山寨反弹很明显的顺序是：\n\n先次新币反弹（空军看大盘下不去了，平空最敏锐）\n\n接着meme+ai meme接力（玩meme的也是反应相对较快，且meme市值最低最能被市场合力推起来）\n\n下一步就是大蓝筹了，但大蓝筹都得等eth，eth不起来，大蓝筹们自己飞不动，这些标的还是得等机构资金推动", "date": "2026-01-05 08:15:15", "date_only": "2026-01-05", "timestamp": 1767600915.0, "likes": 166, "retweets": 13, "replies": 88, "views": 53735, "isReply": false, "text_len": 147, "curation_score": 545.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2008089901011771713", "substance_score": 5.106000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.94, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.106000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1831169044374016512", "text": "@alexking2021 arb、op、ldo、uni这些应该是“基本面”最好的一批山寨了吧，结果如何？我的意思是不要在没有变量的时候硬囤，多考虑考虑右侧交易，在市场或基本面出现变量的时候行动，去赚反应快和执行快的钱，赚后知后觉散户的钱。这轮不像上轮，一没有散户的增量资金、二没有上轮的低估值，很难在山寨上赚到行业早期", "date": "2024-09-04 03:14:56", "date_only": "2024-09-04", "timestamp": 1725419696.0, "likes": 5, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 1060, "isReply": true, "text_len": 160, "curation_score": 34.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1831169044374016512", "substance_score": 4.872, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.94, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 4.872, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2032346031581774308", "text": "说个观点，贵金属这轮的上涨周期结束了，白银已经结束，黄金再延续个半年也结束了\n\n逻辑：有个在任何市场里去观察周期的好方法，就是去找到那个赛道里的龙头和龙二，然后去看他们的汇率对的变化，龙二/龙一的汇率对是周期的量尺\n\n牛初到牛中：龙头涨\n牛中：龙二开始补涨 https://t.co/OTbPLOZLwZ", "date": "2026-03-13 06:40:27", "date_only": "2026-03-13", "timestamp": 1773384027.0, "likes": 750, "retweets": 152, "replies": 347, "views": 442721, "isReply": false, "text_len": 152, "curation_score": 835, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2032346031581774308_0.jpg", "images/2032346031581774308_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2032346031581774308", "substance_score": 5.8069999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.93, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.8069999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2092113596360610236", "text": "交易上对”精准”的过分追求是一种需要消除的执念，本质上是对个人能力的过于自负，每当我觉得自己比市场聪明的时候，一定就到了要被市场打一棒的时候。\n\n- 6w可能是底，4w也可能是底，不确定，就先抄一半\n- 反弹开启了，刚多单赚了一单大的，就别去反手开空了，不是每一个小级别的波段收益都要吃到\n-", "date": "2026-08-25 04:55:25", "date_only": "2026-08-25", "timestamp": 1787633725.0, "likes": 473, "retweets": 71, "replies": 109, "views": 55873, "isReply": false, "text_len": 146, "curation_score": 701.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2092113596360610236", "substance_score": 5.539000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.93, "jev_has_rule": 0.33, "quality_score": 5.539000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2070157102283477446", "text": "关于投资的时间表这个话题聊聊crcl。\n1. 短期跌，因为现在crcl的收入大部分是币圈的存量usdc为主，币圈熊市肯定usdc的增量也会受影响，价格基本是跟着btc在波动。\n2. 我一直在把crcl当拿至少一轮周期的股票在建仓，因为我看涨circle的逻辑就不是usdc在币圈资金的扩大，而是clarity https://t.co/Isho4xly9A", "date": "2026-06-25 14:48:09", "date_only": "2026-06-25", "timestamp": 1782398889.0, "likes": 159, "retweets": 14, "replies": 24, "views": 69126, "isReply": false, "text_len": 178, "curation_score": 628.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2070157102283477446_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2070157102283477446", "substance_score": 5.720999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.24, "jev_depth": 1.93, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.720999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1881226646516310396", "text": "为什么？因为资金热点是轮换的，1个亿跌到了2000w是因为资金热点已经离开了，而想要回来一般需要的时间会比较久，这个时候你如果接盘很容易被持续流出的尾部资金进一步套牢。", "date": "2025-01-20 06:25:58", "date_only": "2025-01-20", "timestamp": 1737354358.0, "likes": 91, "retweets": 9, "replies": 9, "views": 25109, "isReply": true, "text_len": 84, "curation_score": 223.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1881226646516310396", "substance_score": 4.993, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.51, "jev_depth": 1.93, "jev_has_rule": 0.1, "quality_score": 4.993, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2061725512066806134", "text": "Circle短期的问题还是作为加密股太跟BTC大盘了，不过crcl反弹的力度比btc和eth强太多了，2月到5月这波反弹最高178%+，btc反弹了+36%，现在btc已经快回二月低点了，circle还离底部有翻倍。我准备做一个违背祖宗的决定，以后短线看空加密市场时，空eth来对冲我的CRCL仓位🤡", "date": "2026-06-02 08:24:01", "date_only": "2026-06-02", "timestamp": 1780388641.0, "likes": 67, "retweets": 2, "replies": 26, "views": 13253, "isReply": false, "text_len": 150, "curation_score": 283.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2061725512066806134_0.png", "images/2061725512066806134_1.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2061725512066806134", "substance_score": 5.341, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.96, "jev_depth": 1.93, "jev_has_rule": 0.08, "quality_score": 5.341, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1855927144805007545", "text": "@guhype 我不太认同这个逻辑，因为链上池子的原因，你看着是突然涨了几倍，但是实际进去的资金非常有限，这种币上了币安才是真正巨大交易量和资金进入的时候，对于币安来说，选到好的标的，大家也愿意炒的，就够了，没那么多科学家非要去抓币安list那几分钟的收益的，这部分也承载不了多少钱", "date": "2024-11-11 10:54:47", "date_only": "2024-11-11", "timestamp": 1731322487.0, "likes": 7, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 1128, "isReply": true, "text_len": 141, "curation_score": 37.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1855927144805007545", "substance_score": 4.6450000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.58, "jev_depth": 1.93, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.6450000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2019215003057045604", "text": "分享一个我在上轮抄底btc和eth的策略。比如我的心理价是65000要建btc的长期仓位，则我会用期权卖出btc65000的看跌期权，然后现价挂单65000的btc。\n\n如果跌到了65000我抄底成功+赚取了卖出看跌期权的费用，如果没跌到65000，则我只赚取了卖出期权的费用。 https://t.co/RKNZpRIZnc", "date": "2026-02-05 01:02:26", "date_only": "2026-02-05", "timestamp": 1770253346.0, "likes": 616, "retweets": 116, "replies": 97, "views": 134292, "isReply": false, "text_len": 163, "curation_score": 835, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2019215003057045604_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2019215003057045604", "substance_score": 6.204, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.64, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.48, "quality_score": 6.204, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2074042083380269516", "text": "我觉得这轮熊市BTC和ETH的底会有很多人抄不到，都在盯着上几轮的跌幅在刻舟，21-22年跌了76%，18-19年跌了84%，14-15年跌了87%，都觉得这轮好歹跌个70%，去4万吧。\n\n但这轮有三个变量跟前几轮不太一样：\n1.", "date": "2026-07-06 08:05:41", "date_only": "2026-07-06", "timestamp": 1783325141.0, "likes": 430, "retweets": 53, "replies": 88, "views": 410038, "isReply": false, "text_len": 115, "curation_score": 839.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2074042083380269516", "substance_score": 5.204, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.35, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.204, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1973216059001028651", "text": "说一个做新币的小tip，新币开盘先等半个小时到一个小时再入场博弈，没这么着急，用这一个小时去仔细观察。\n\n观察什么呢？\n\n比如项目方有没有在把alpha空投的筹码收回来？还是池子都快砸穿了？\n\n还在alpha暂时没上现货的时候项目方在干嘛？有加区间池子收筹吗？", "date": "2025-10-01 02:39:03", "date_only": "2025-10-01", "timestamp": 1759286343.0, "likes": 296, "retweets": 36, "replies": 29, "views": 46332, "isReply": false, "text_len": 130, "curation_score": 605.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1973216059001028651", "substance_score": 5.4, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.68, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.25, "quality_score": 5.4, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2009141715509326019", "text": "现在bsc的meme上了二级起不来是因为博弈太透明且共识了，你在每个阶段赌的是什么预期，对手盘是谁一清二楚。\n\n1. 上了合约买入埋伏现货，埋伏的是新闻交易和现货冲进来的资金\n\n2. 上了现货新闻交易的狙进去，埋伏的是上了现货手动fomo追的\n\n3. 现货开盘之后之前埋伏的统一浇给现货fomo接盘的韭菜\n\n4.", "date": "2026-01-08 05:54:47", "date_only": "2026-01-08", "timestamp": 1767851687.0, "likes": 221, "retweets": 18, "replies": 69, "views": 71314, "isReply": false, "text_len": 156, "curation_score": 691.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2009141715509326019", "substance_score": 5.124, "jev_is_substantive": 0.84, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.08, "quality_score": 5.124, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2079520202233131172", "text": "发这篇的时候满市场都是踩crypto捧ai的声音，btc 59000到今天已经反弹了10%+，隔壁的存储普遍跌了30-40%。如果当时你fomo了从crypto全切去追了存储，大概率现在套牢割不下手，割了也不敢回来追crypto，更可能的是在接下来的半年一直高位补仓AI股等反弹而错过了crypto每轮周期最好的建仓时间。", "date": "2026-07-21 10:53:46", "date_only": "2026-07-21", "timestamp": 1784631226.0, "likes": 207, "retweets": 13, "replies": 58, "views": 55265, "isReply": false, "text_len": 161, "curation_score": 584.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2079520202233131172", "substance_score": 5.166, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.74, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 5.166, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1913532835484602695", "text": "我刚开始交易meme买的是Troll，这个币教我的第一课就是永远不要看一个meme币已经跌了%多少而去抄底，注意力和流动性达到顶峰后，左侧抄底meme必死。\n\n因为这是个只博弈“注意力和流动性”的市场，而“注意力和流动性”这俩东西是不可能留的住的，“只玩新的 不玩旧的”就是这个市场的共识。", "date": "2025-04-19 09:59:14", "date_only": "2025-04-19", "timestamp": 1745056754.0, "likes": 204, "retweets": 31, "replies": 32, "views": 72118, "isReply": false, "text_len": 145, "curation_score": 657.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1913532835484602695", "substance_score": 5.388, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.21, "quality_score": 5.388, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2098084083943575841", "text": "“如何通过一个memecoin去激活一家美国上市公司的流动性”，BNC这家公司在4stock这个meme币出现之前，每日的成交量差不多有10-20万美金，好的时候有30-50万（作为币安财库公司，在自然流量上应该已经算是小盘股里不错的了），然而通过一个meme币，当天美股的成交量翻了300-500倍，破了7000万美金，而币安的perp成交量那两天也有3-4亿美金。\n\n我觉得这个案例对很多美股小盘股的公司会是一个启发，小盘股最头疼的问题就是没有流动性，做市值管理和股东退出都很难，而stock meme如果能做出热度，就是点燃流动性小马拉大车的答案。\n\n我想我们未来一定会看到更多类似的案例。\n@cz_binance @heyibinance", "date": "2026-09-10 16:20:00", "date_only": "2026-09-10", "timestamp": 1789057200.0, "likes": 137, "retweets": 22, "replies": 72, "views": 21883, "isReply": false, "text_len": 323, "curation_score": 475.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2098084083943575841_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2098084083943575841", "substance_score": 5.458, "jev_is_substantive": 0.8, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.54, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.458, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2004806652701409689", "text": "我也是没想明白现在买OKB的逻辑，说几种情况。\n\n如果OKX最终能美股上市，为什么不买流动性更充足有更多机构资金冲的美股标的？那里肯定也是OKX未来业务和资本运作的重心。\n\n如果OKX不能美股上市，需要退而求其次专搞OKB（情况类似很多defi标的，比如Uni），是否还有买的必要是个问题。", "date": "2025-12-27 06:48:48", "date_only": "2025-12-27", "timestamp": 1766818128.0, "likes": 136, "retweets": 3, "replies": 82, "views": 101115, "isReply": false, "text_len": 145, "curation_score": 533.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2004806652701409689", "substance_score": 4.739999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.83, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.739999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2048710724361609370", "text": "不管是美股还是港股，成长股变价值股的过程中杀估值都杀的特别狠，如果你在这个转变过程中因为“还挺有性价比的”抄底，那你大概率会抄到半山腰并需要等待很久的时间解套。\n\n如果你不是纯粹的价值投资者，就少关注已实现利润，多关注毛利率（决定了生意的好坏），多关注收入增长（增长快=一白遮百丑）", "date": "2026-04-27 10:27:54", "date_only": "2026-04-27", "timestamp": 1777285674.0, "likes": 105, "retweets": 8, "replies": 28, "views": 21397, "isReply": false, "text_len": 141, "curation_score": 329.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2048710724361609370", "substance_score": 5.077999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.95, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.48, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 5.077999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1972613063921877361", "text": "聊聊今晚的两个盘子Anoma和Falcon\n\n- Anoma感觉空或多都没那么合适，高控筹，反撸了测试网用户，后手可能还有Coinbase和upbit，但15亿的开盘估值，开多也没什么upside，项目方想浇想拉都行。\n\n- Falcon先上Alpha再给空投，先链上消化买盘后再上现货，时间表卡的还行，到时候看开盘估值可能上一波。", "date": "2025-09-29 10:42:58", "date_only": "2025-09-29", "timestamp": 1759142578.0, "likes": 79, "retweets": 2, "replies": 25, "views": 59404, "isReply": false, "text_len": 166, "curation_score": 333.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1972613063921877361", "substance_score": 4.746, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.746, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2087788763695198302", "text": "我觉得这个问题问的挺关键的：为什么最后都是看AI算力的需求，但存储股被当作周期股定价，forward p/e只有个位数，而AI产业链其他公司被当成成长股定价？", "date": "2026-08-13 06:30:05", "date_only": "2026-08-13", "timestamp": 1786602605.0, "likes": 71, "retweets": 4, "replies": 42, "views": 23683, "isReply": false, "text_len": 79, "curation_score": 245.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2087788763695198302", "substance_score": 4.854, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.854, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2013601855272820973", "text": "tldr：\n筛标的：基本面越凉、钱越多的项目越容易搞花活\n信号：很长的横盘收稠期、刷交易量、oi增加、布订单薄变的很稀薄、短时间的快砸收针（诱空和震掉短线多头）", "date": "2026-01-20 13:17:47", "date_only": "2026-01-20", "timestamp": 1768915067.0, "likes": 30, "retweets": 2, "replies": 3, "views": 5048, "isReply": true, "text_len": 80, "curation_score": 31.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2013601855272820973", "substance_score": 4.835999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.96, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 4.835999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2004799630681473422", "text": "@fantxu 熊市赌山寨多单盈亏比很一般，而且很多山寨不一定是收筹拉盘拉起来的，可能只是上下订单薄都太稀薄，平空平上去了", "date": "2025-12-27 06:20:53", "date_only": "2025-12-27", "timestamp": 1766816453.0, "likes": 22, "retweets": 0, "replies": 3, "views": 6328, "isReply": true, "text_len": 61, "curation_score": 30.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2004799630681473422", "substance_score": 4.675999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.675999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1836379799486595503", "text": "@octopusycc 山寨币那波暴跌是在周末完全没有流动性的时候出现的，美股vix超过60在过去40年里一共就出现过三次，一次是2008年，一次是2020年，你那天如果继续看开盘大暴跌本质上是在预期出现比08金融危机、新冠病毒更大的雷。如果你现在回看还是这么觉得这么预期没问题，那也没问题。我听了你的space以后立刻写了一", "date": "2024-09-18 12:20:37", "date_only": "2024-09-18", "timestamp": 1726662037.0, "likes": 8, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 1939, "isReply": true, "text_len": 163, "curation_score": 70.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1836379799486595503", "substance_score": 4.616, "jev_is_substantive": 0.84, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.53, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.616, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1947339984777973919", "text": "@tengqing520 pengu确实刚突破在继续拉，OI也还在涨，不过快到前高阻力位了，这里应该不少止盈和空单进来，不过好在止损也很好设 https://t.co/yXy8v7dHm3", "date": "2025-07-21 16:56:46", "date_only": "2025-07-21", "timestamp": 1753117006.0, "likes": 6, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 7378, "isReply": true, "text_len": 94, "curation_score": 48.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1947339984777973919_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1947339984777973919", "substance_score": 5.147999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.75, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.12, "quality_score": 5.147999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2092462119975616761", "text": "山寨主升浪，一般是在牛市确认后（比如明年中甚至明年底）。\n\n牛初，就是几个共识大币跟着 b/e 动，拿着大币和信念标的，有交易能力的可以玩玩妖币和波段。\n\n以及，关注链上是不是会出现趋势级别机会。\n\n什么是趋势级别？\n\n就是哪怕 bn 出于限制竞争对手，不愿意上，也不得不上的链上原生项目。\n\n显然 meme 不属于这个类别，不用幻想大所会一起上哪个 meme 。", "date": "2026-08-26 04:00:20", "date_only": "2026-08-26", "timestamp": 1787716820.0, "likes": 0, "retweets": 53, "replies": 0, "views": 1143, "isReply": false, "text_len": 182, "curation_score": 321.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2092462119975616761", "substance_score": 4.9799999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.68, "jev_depth": 1.92, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 4.9799999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1908247853052682269", "text": "为什么今天美股大跌而加密货币不跌？\n\n因为，贸易战主要影响的是美股，不是加密货币（arguably对加密货币反而是好事）\n\n但，之后一周通常加密货币会补跌，因为当一些股票跌到了更合适的位置，投资人会选择将crypto的仓位换到美股去", "date": "2025-04-04 19:58:36", "date_only": "2025-04-04", "timestamp": 1743796716.0, "likes": 366, "retweets": 40, "replies": 55, "views": 216888, "isReply": false, "text_len": 116, "curation_score": 740.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1908247853052682269", "substance_score": 5.137, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.64, "jev_depth": 1.91, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.137, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2086722881900224627", "text": "在Crypto和美股之间做交易确实需要思维的切换，币圈可能要花90%的精力去思考博弈视角，10%去想合力视角（只有短期合力没有长期合力），而美股则是90%去思考合力视角，10%在博弈视角。这中间的差异主要在于Crypto几乎都是短线资金，因缺乏基本面或本身基本面极度依赖流动性，所以主要是新闻和博弈驱动，", "date": "2026-08-10 07:54:39", "date_only": "2026-08-10", "timestamp": 1786348479.0, "likes": 352, "retweets": 58, "replies": 129, "views": 75039, "isReply": false, "text_len": 152, "curation_score": 759.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2086722881900224627", "substance_score": 5.229, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.94, "jev_depth": 1.91, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.229, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1899404992982995115", "text": "简单说一下我现阶段对后市仍然偏看空的逻辑链吧。\n1. 首先咱们得有个共识：“币圈资产是跟着美股走的，所有币圈资产能涨的前提一定是：美股能重新站稳脚跟，并开启上攻”\n\n2. 美股在现阶段”能站稳将跟，并开启上攻”的前提有且只有一个：“开启放水”（别提AI革命和Trump利好了，早都博弈完了）\n\n3. https://t.co/4Ck0QzbXgC", "date": "2025-03-11 10:20:14", "date_only": "2025-03-11", "timestamp": 1741688414.0, "likes": 327, "retweets": 55, "replies": 114, "views": 266794, "isReply": false, "text_len": 173, "curation_score": 860.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1899404992982995115_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1899404992982995115", "substance_score": 5.829, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.91, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.829, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2066078398183829552", "text": "没碰$H这个币，不过建议币安应该直接下架$H然后风控做市账号。坚守自盗的项目方，链上现货砸归零后，合约吸引到空头对手方又割一道。这种割法要是让庄安全落地了，是不是以后项目方和做市商都可以这么玩了？筹码控不住就直接搞个黑客事件，把现货砸归零，然后现货和合约切割完，又是一个新盘子。", "date": "2026-06-14 08:40:50", "date_only": "2026-06-14", "timestamp": 1781426450.0, "likes": 84, "retweets": 8, "replies": 69, "views": 59537, "isReply": false, "text_len": 139, "curation_score": 389.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2066078398183829552", "substance_score": 4.673, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.96, "jev_depth": 1.91, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 4.673, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2076499593471369271", "text": "韩股和美股海力士这费率太夸张了，这么多人赌溢价缩小吗，看台积电的历史数据，有溢价是正常的啊，万一溢价缩小花个一个月，这费率都能把本金吃腰斩了。", "date": "2026-07-13 02:50:57", "date_only": "2026-07-13", "timestamp": 1783911057.0, "likes": 71, "retweets": 1, "replies": 41, "views": 44449, "isReply": false, "text_len": 71, "curation_score": 263.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2076499593471369271_0.jpg", "images/2076499593471369271_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2076499593471369271", "substance_score": 5.231, "jev_is_substantive": 0.79, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.56, "jev_depth": 1.91, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 5.231, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2071906508816916702", "text": "@PhyrexNi 银行稳定币的问题是，如果本身就在自身体系里流转，就没有做成稳定币的必要，成熟的结算、支付体系、机构客户，为什么要把客户的钱换成稳定币？有点脱裤子放屁的感觉。如果要出去流转，自己做的稳定币又很难脱离自身的体系。", "date": "2026-06-30 10:39:40", "date_only": "2026-06-30", "timestamp": 1782815980.0, "likes": 28, "retweets": 0, "replies": 3, "views": 6328, "isReply": true, "text_len": 114, "curation_score": 79.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2071906508816916702", "substance_score": 4.409, "jev_is_substantive": 0.74, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.58, "jev_depth": 1.91, "jev_has_rule": 0.01, "quality_score": 4.409, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1874422712510353501", "text": "@timotimoqi 这轮所有新的VC币都挺难的，流动性不在这，vc投资人们还得解锁，做市商开盘市值还高", "date": "2025-01-01 11:49:34", "date_only": "2025-01-01", "timestamp": 1735732174.0, "likes": 11, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 4720, "isReply": true, "text_len": 53, "curation_score": -4.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1874422712510353501", "substance_score": 4.511, "jev_is_substantive": 0.8, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.91, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.511, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2083124885698818545", "text": "@kngzhjngji21338 社长买股票（利好），韩国政府不让做空的救市方法都出来了（利好），fomc落地不加息（利好），财报也全都出来了，capex不减反增（利好）。如果有这些利好还是砸到850，那么850赌反转的逻辑又是什么？是否有昨天赌反转的利好逻辑这么硬？", "date": "2026-07-31 09:37:29", "date_only": "2026-07-31", "timestamp": 1785490649.0, "likes": 4, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 591, "isReply": true, "text_len": 134, "curation_score": 47.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2083124885698818545", "substance_score": 4.665, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.68, "jev_depth": 1.91, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.665, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1831071809736982955", "text": "@egember3 如果只是一瞬间拉，那基本就是为了逢高出货拉的，如果是真拉，至少会给你一两天的反应时间，而且通常是大盘也在往上走的时候。玩meme基本没法左侧交易，套死。", "date": "2024-09-03 20:48:33", "date_only": "2024-09-03", "timestamp": 1725396513.0, "likes": 2, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 948, "isReply": true, "text_len": 86, "curation_score": 29.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1831071809736982955", "substance_score": 4.736999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.91, "jev_has_rule": 0.16, "quality_score": 4.736999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2093215147406102872", "text": "其实每轮周期的btc底都挺像的，底部旱地拔葱拉根20-30%的针，然后横盘1-3个月洗筹，就算抄到绝对底部的，如果没点耐心，也基本就在第一根20%涨幅之后横盘的那几个月就把仓位出掉了，之后就是一路向上。 https://t.co/qwCehvDccn", "date": "2026-08-28 05:52:35", "date_only": "2026-08-28", "timestamp": 1787896355.0, "likes": 557, "retweets": 83, "replies": 111, "views": 203308, "isReply": false, "text_len": 125, "curation_score": 835, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2093215147406102872_0.png", "images/2093215147406102872_1.png", "images/2093215147406102872_2.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2093215147406102872", "substance_score": 5.842, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.62, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 5.842, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1898450154447151341", "text": "刚好在盯盘，看到Kaito线，分享个做合约超短线的小妙招。比如可以去coinglass看1小时前的kaito合约爆仓热力图，在$1.75-$1.8附近有1m左右的币安空单会被爆仓，所以做市商基本都会去戳爆集中爆仓区再反转。\n而三天前上upbit后的币安空单有4m左右也是在$2被爆的，爆完就反转。 https://t.co/hlbZHaGUve", "date": "2025-03-08 19:06:02", "date_only": "2025-03-08", "timestamp": 1741460762.0, "likes": 429, "retweets": 91, "replies": 43, "views": 77088, "isReply": false, "text_len": 172, "curation_score": 834.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1898450154447151341_0.jpg", "images/1898450154447151341_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1898450154447151341", "substance_score": 5.709999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.84, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.52, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.1, "quality_score": 5.709999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1989478033921905102", "text": "建议对ZEC上头想梭哈的，还是去多洗两把脸清醒下\n这币每轮周期Grayscale都拉一次盘\n每次也都讲一样的故事，Privacy Bitcoin\n每次也都套同一批信了BTC需要privacy人\n但你想想洗钱的，哪个会用Zcash洗？\n你要真信privacy和洗钱需求会驱动代币上涨，那你为什么不买Tornado Cash和Monero？", "date": "2025-11-14 23:38:20", "date_only": "2025-11-14", "timestamp": 1763163500.0, "likes": 246, "retweets": 14, "replies": 85, "views": 54222, "isReply": false, "text_len": 168, "curation_score": 570.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1989478033921905102", "substance_score": 4.834, "jev_is_substantive": 0.73, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.77, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.834, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1931397396354994383", "text": "最近WCT、Anime、Mask这种upbit现货+binance合约或现货的爆拉爆砸币上轮周期其实挺多的，比如Loom、Hifi、YGG、Arpa、Lina，基本每个月都有2个。庄利用的就是熊市注意力集中，没见过妖盘的韭菜们大家也比较爱做空，看当天涨的比较多了就空进去，庄靠韩元所upbit和bithumb拉现货去爆空军，然后收网的时 https://t.co/gSl7hcBiqt", "date": "2025-06-07 17:06:37", "date_only": "2025-06-07", "timestamp": 1749315997.0, "likes": 211, "retweets": 20, "replies": 24, "views": 54192, "isReply": false, "text_len": 192, "curation_score": 658.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1931397396354994383_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1931397396354994383", "substance_score": 5.6579999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 5.6579999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2096139256351891773", "text": "不太建议空marscoin，上了现货这种大利好落地没砸反拉太反常了。marscoin上币周期拖了很久，中间cz喊了币有洗了一波盘，烧错了一次marscoin洗了一波盘，然后又先上了牛来洗了一波盘，这几个事件叠加在一起把散户筹码洗的已经很干净了，又直接连续合约+现货，能看出来是币安反击robinhood主推的股票meme https://t.co/pbZSz89fXg", "date": "2026-09-05 07:31:57", "date_only": "2026-09-05", "timestamp": 1788593517.0, "likes": 165, "retweets": 12, "replies": 96, "views": 60842, "isReply": false, "text_len": 184, "curation_score": 580.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2096139256351891773_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2096139256351891773", "substance_score": 5.475999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.8, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.66, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 5.475999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2087142804694958429", "text": "还是认为mstr是这轮抄底crypto beta最差的币股选择，如果你已经买了或想买mstr，想一个关键问题：一个借高息贷炒币、高买低卖、定投btc两轮周期了还亏钱的公司，凭什么该享有btc nav的溢价而不是折扣？", "date": "2026-08-11 11:43:16", "date_only": "2026-08-11", "timestamp": 1786448596.0, "likes": 99, "retweets": 3, "replies": 83, "views": 55470, "isReply": false, "text_len": 108, "curation_score": 403.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2087142804694958429", "substance_score": 4.803999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.74, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.803999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1914235494176833629", "text": "解释下为啥会有末日战车这个概念。因为市场流动性是抱团的，先冲最优质的资产，但当“优质资产”到了阻力位，市场无法合力继续推高后，资金会分流进弱的资产，去赌一波补涨，通常资金分流就是下跌前的最后一环。之前etc是末日战车，因为etc就是最没价值最弱的资产，而现在eth的位置跟etc没啥区别了。", "date": "2025-04-21 08:31:21", "date_only": "2025-04-21", "timestamp": 1745224281.0, "likes": 90, "retweets": 11, "replies": 6, "views": 20490, "isReply": true, "text_len": 145, "curation_score": 249.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1914235494176833629", "substance_score": 4.886, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.84, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.886, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2028378528002273721", "text": "我的答案，选择的优先级是：能留存下来>流动性>保值，基于这个原则：\n- 美国的房产必须处置掉，打起来中国人在美房产大概率会被没收，中国核心城市无居住需求也处置掉（虽战时核心地产会抗通胀，但如是毁灭性战争房产都没意义）\n-", "date": "2026-03-02 07:55:01", "date_only": "2026-03-02", "timestamp": 1772438101.0, "likes": 68, "retweets": 4, "replies": 17, "views": 21452, "isReply": true, "text_len": 116, "curation_score": 166.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2028378528002273721", "substance_score": 4.854, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.74, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.14, "quality_score": 4.854, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1851348999841976457", "text": "@Float9933 @0xmagnolia upbit庄，总归得拉，但是我感觉mtl上散户多头有点多，其实去年mtl明显有试盘，但是拉到一半就停了，这种币熊市的时候靠燃烧空头去拉合约比较适合，但明显当时拉起来的时候没人去空。", "date": "2024-10-29 19:42:52", "date_only": "2024-10-29", "timestamp": 1730230972.0, "likes": 6, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 1668, "isReply": true, "text_len": 113, "curation_score": 52.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1851348999841976457", "substance_score": 4.533999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.533999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1923793610505703894", "text": "@crypto_biubiu 那干脆就分仓分个5份，每份爆仓即止损，爆了就不许再碰这个标的了", "date": "2025-05-17 17:31:53", "date_only": "2025-05-17", "timestamp": 1747503113.0, "likes": 5, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 1552, "isReply": true, "text_len": 46, "curation_score": 10.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1923793610505703894", "substance_score": 5.187999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.84, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.81, "quality_score": 5.187999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1848205736905703779", "text": "@0xEdwin999 嗯嗯，goat这种我更多会把它归类到突发热点资金抱团盘吧，不是典型的单一庄盘，榜一在拉升过程中也出货到1%左右了。", "date": "2024-10-21 03:32:40", "date_only": "2024-10-21", "timestamp": 1729481560.0, "likes": 5, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 1153, "isReply": true, "text_len": 69, "curation_score": 9.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1848205736905703779", "substance_score": 4.343999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.73, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.88, "jev_depth": 1.9, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.343999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2021907857055314398", "text": "前两天其实写了不少字，后来都删了，因为实在不想在大家最难的时候继续唱空行业了。\n\n简单说下观点，我认为这轮熊市会比大部分人想的要更久、跌幅也会普遍比上轮更深。\n\n这轮山寨里牛市高点超过21年高点的只有bnb、xrp、zec、okb(烧币)，sol和eth算持平。", "date": "2026-02-12 11:22:53", "date_only": "2026-02-12", "timestamp": 1770895373.0, "likes": 383, "retweets": 38, "replies": 106, "views": 220521, "isReply": false, "text_len": 131, "curation_score": 734.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2021907857055314398", "substance_score": 5.171, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.49, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.171, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2006995954583630131", "text": "刚跟几个朋友在讨论q1该怎么做山寨季，结论是确实不太好做。\n\n现在还在博弈山寨的存量资金都太聪明了，明显全在大盘反弹前抢跑山寨季，很多山寨其实也是空头资金感觉大盘跌不动了，平空拉起来的，大盘还没什么动作，山寨已经弹了30-50%。", "date": "2026-01-02 07:48:18", "date_only": "2026-01-02", "timestamp": 1767340098.0, "likes": 250, "retweets": 16, "replies": 119, "views": 121037, "isReply": false, "text_len": 115, "curation_score": 668.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2006995954583630131", "substance_score": 5.011, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.011, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1900206227524878497", "text": "其实项目方和VC们心里也清楚，这轮新上CEX的VC币真的很难再找能带“买盘”的KOL喊单了。\n\n逻辑很简单，因为能带买盘的KOL一定是想带着自己粉丝赚钱的，但拜镰刀们收割经验过于丰富所赐，这轮的VC币和散户就没有任何“合力”的过程，从开盘开始大家就是对手盘（也许该考虑换个做市 or", "date": "2025-03-13 15:24:03", "date_only": "2025-03-13", "timestamp": 1741879443.0, "likes": 196, "retweets": 14, "replies": 74, "views": 360603, "isReply": false, "text_len": 141, "curation_score": 656.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1900206227524878497", "substance_score": 4.9590000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.83, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.9590000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2001158038468878536", "text": "虽然我大多数时候也是E卫兵，但这轮ETH上涨的逻辑已经彻底结束了，这波上涨完全由DAT驱动，而回头看9月份Eth DAT削平溢价开始变折扣的时候就是最好的卖点，我的主流币也都在降息前后跑完了。\n\n这个时候说抄底Eth，就像一个meme币车头们都套牢且没钱补仓了，还希望能喊韭菜们买起来一样，很难自救了。 https://t.co/6Ue0L9UmlP", "date": "2025-12-17 05:10:30", "date_only": "2025-12-17", "timestamp": 1765948230.0, "likes": 181, "retweets": 9, "replies": 68, "views": 74407, "isReply": false, "text_len": 175, "curation_score": 597.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2001158038468878536_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2001158038468878536", "substance_score": 5.741, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.41, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.11, "quality_score": 5.741, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1920476751752208718", "text": "延伸一下，开单以后走向一旦开始跟设想的不一样，心里开始“虚”的，这种单的结局几乎没一个好的。\n\n“虚”就是潜意识告诉你，其实开单的那一刻你并没有想好你的开单理由是什么、交易计划是什么，这个时候最不该做的就是去扛单甚至加注摊成本，而是止损。", "date": "2025-05-08 13:51:53", "date_only": "2025-05-08", "timestamp": 1746712313.0, "likes": 140, "retweets": 18, "replies": 12, "views": 30799, "isReply": false, "text_len": 119, "curation_score": 430.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1920476751752208718", "substance_score": 5.307, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.35, "quality_score": 5.307, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1936266650443276327", "text": "大家现在已经习惯了妖币一直涨最后一根针插到底的操盘方式，最近新的庄家操盘手法是扎最后一根针之前，疯狂的做下插针，然后拉回去损耗追空的空头力量，同时吸引买盘入场接最后一根针，比如前段时间收网的Anime，收网前疯狂插针，还有这两天的BMT，也开始插了。碰到这种，如果你有多单就该找机会平了， https://t.co/TG6O7NrAct", "date": "2025-06-21 03:35:18", "date_only": "2025-06-21", "timestamp": 1750476918.0, "likes": 137, "retweets": 14, "replies": 25, "views": 44978, "isReply": false, "text_len": 168, "curation_score": 442.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1936266650443276327_0.png", "images/1936266650443276327_1.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1936266650443276327", "substance_score": 5.681, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.81, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.17, "quality_score": 5.681, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1915006077101592941", "text": "这两天山寨开始回暖，AI仍是反弹最好的赛道，抄了一麻袋Defai的龙头Anon @HeyAnonai。\n\n核心逻辑：\n1. 上轮炒完框架，无限生成垃圾推特bot的叙事已经去魅了，这轮再炒只能炒应用层了，应用层最看好的仍是能切到流动性和交易侧的Defi+AI.\n2.", "date": "2025-04-23 11:33:22", "date_only": "2025-04-23", "timestamp": 1745408002.0, "likes": 129, "retweets": 32, "replies": 42, "views": 120943, "isReply": false, "text_len": 132, "curation_score": 669.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1915006077101592941", "substance_score": 5.013, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.013, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1940591723589013596", "text": "有没有发现很多之前市场暴跌时候拉的最猛的山寨反倒在这两天山寨全面反弹行情下涨不动了？比如dmc、myx、tut，本质上这些标的都是靠爆空来完成拉升的，当其他标的一天拉了30%", "date": "2025-07-03 02:01:36", "date_only": "2025-07-03", "timestamp": 1751508096.0, "likes": 122, "retweets": 20, "replies": 48, "views": 36293, "isReply": false, "text_len": 87, "curation_score": 420.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1940591723589013596", "substance_score": 4.742999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.78, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.742999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2056818061068669234", "text": "反映出的问题 \n1. 被一个宏大的叙事所裹挟（过于听信公开的“故事”）\n2. 听朋友cx（信息源滞后且没自己的主观想法）\n3. 大多情况是追高或者抄了第一根下跌针（容易Fomo）\n4. 原定的交易计划是涨20%-30%就出（没搞明白盈亏比）\n5. 结果买完就山顶站岗，然后说服自己是价值投资（不会止损）\n6.", "date": "2026-05-19 19:23:34", "date_only": "2026-05-19", "timestamp": 1779218614.0, "likes": 53, "retweets": 3, "replies": 0, "views": 9424, "isReply": true, "text_len": 154, "curation_score": 207.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2056818061068669234", "substance_score": 4.521000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.72, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.16, "quality_score": 4.521000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1877290375250927952", "text": "@csc12313 @wolfyxbt 咋说呢 我是觉得山寨币本身就没什么周期理论，都是跟随流动性周期在走的。Btc其实在19年之后就一直跟着美股走了，ETF通过后这个现象更明显了。", "date": "2025-01-09 09:44:38", "date_only": "2025-01-09", "timestamp": 1736415878.0, "likes": 3, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 2351, "isReply": true, "text_len": 91, "curation_score": 94.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1877290375250927952", "substance_score": 4.597, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.87, "jev_depth": 1.89, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.597, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2088873100742099417", "text": "真的不建议大家再碰任何山寨币了，包括妖币。因为这市场里还在玩妖币的几乎都是“认为自己有些信息优势”的老鼠仓了，而如果跟你在一个赛场博弈的人只剩下“有信息的人”，那么做市商收割的对象只有这批人了。所以为什么这波全是拉一波就砸盘了？因为MM拉一波试盘根本拉不来空头对手盘了，只能割埋伏的老鼠", "date": "2026-08-16 06:18:51", "date_only": "2026-08-16", "timestamp": 1786861131.0, "likes": 250, "retweets": 11, "replies": 65, "views": 48681, "isReply": false, "text_len": 143, "curation_score": 565.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2088873100742099417", "substance_score": 5.1, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.81, "jev_depth": 1.88, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 5.1, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1891106404477579571", "text": "最近ai熄火然后连着两个穷国纳税币之后，新的主线还没出现。很多人正在离开链上回到二级，短期内二级的造富效益会大于一级。\n\n最近二级多找找：\n1. 经历了至少一轮周期洗盘有充分共识的\n2. 有实际业务且现金流不错的\n3. 或是老币这轮转新业务了，有利好刺激的，庄大概率也会配合拉一波盘\n\n切记不要：", "date": "2025-02-16 12:44:36", "date_only": "2025-02-16", "timestamp": 1739709876.0, "likes": 196, "retweets": 33, "replies": 122, "views": 97388, "isReply": false, "text_len": 148, "curation_score": 767.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1891106404477579571", "substance_score": 5.268, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.88, "jev_has_rule": 0.11, "quality_score": 5.268, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2090680464734347561", "text": "以下是我在思考怎么投ai赛道的大致框架、择时、以及一些核心问题的想法。\n\n现在2026年美国每年AI的资本支出是八千到一万亿美金，这个数字怎么算出来的呢？\n\n亚马逊：2200亿\n谷歌：2050亿\n微软：1750亿\nMeta：1450亿\nOracle：650亿", "date": "2026-08-21 06:00:40", "date_only": "2026-08-21", "timestamp": 1787292040.0, "likes": 186, "retweets": 23, "replies": 36, "views": 32690, "isReply": false, "text_len": 129, "curation_score": 503.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2090680464734347561", "substance_score": 5.048, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.88, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.048, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2098411323843592487", "text": "bnc今天拉了7%，美股成交了多少呢？大概两百多万美金。\n\n稍微来点美股资金这个小盘股就拉回锚了，只有拉回锚这个DAT对于币安才有用，才能去发行新股持续买bnb，离拉回锚目前差不多还有1倍。\n\nmstr牛市的时候市值比nav高了3倍多 https://t.co/a8H63XvptE", "date": "2026-09-11 14:00:20", "date_only": "2026-09-11", "timestamp": 1789135220.0, "likes": 55, "retweets": 1, "replies": 32, "views": 60355, "isReply": false, "text_len": 141, "curation_score": 326.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2098411323843592487_0.jpg", "images/2098411323843592487_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2098411323843592487", "substance_score": 5.085999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.76, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.54, "jev_depth": 1.88, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.085999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2004298577116647601", "text": "@bill_qian 但这个市场绝大部分项目唯一offer给用户的“产品”就是它们的tge，给了撸毛的用户撸空投的机会，给了交易者交易的机会。这轮周期真正通过产品给用户创造价值且有revenue的两只手数得过来了。", "date": "2025-12-25 21:09:53", "date_only": "2025-12-25", "timestamp": 1766696993.0, "likes": 13, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 2649, "isReply": true, "text_len": 107, "curation_score": 49.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2004298577116647601", "substance_score": 4.6339999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.66, "jev_depth": 1.88, "jev_has_rule": 0.01, "quality_score": 4.6339999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1866002296389488667", "text": "@Mooncat_lz 背后团队完全一样的不多，但这些大项目请的dev和早期做市商都是那一批人，也没多少选择，就像二级都选wintermute似的。他们的钱包很多时候会是复用的，所以链上会有像一个团队做的似的蛛丝马迹。", "date": "2024-12-09 06:09:50", "date_only": "2024-12-09", "timestamp": 1733724590.0, "likes": 25, "retweets": 2, "replies": 3, "views": 6152, "isReply": true, "text_len": 109, "curation_score": 65.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1866002296389488667", "substance_score": 4.039, "jev_is_substantive": 0.58, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.84, "jev_depth": 1.87, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.039, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1893616098337329645", "text": "@cishanjia 奶哥 二级新币别明牌打 链上的标的拉升阶段 庄还需要市场合力推高市值 二级的高控币 尤其是合约 做市商基本都是对手盘打法", "date": "2025-02-23 10:57:14", "date_only": "2025-02-23", "timestamp": 1740308234.0, "likes": 22, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 7774, "isReply": true, "text_len": 71, "curation_score": 63.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1893616098337329645", "substance_score": 4.661, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.87, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 4.661, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1916138450845307198", "text": "@Threewin33 当空单需求大于多单需求的时候，就会出现期货价格低于现货价格，funding rate变负的情况，所以只要庄的多单仓位小于市场提供的空单需求，资金费率就会持续往庄那走", "date": "2025-04-26 14:33:01", "date_only": "2025-04-26", "timestamp": 1745677981.0, "likes": 11, "retweets": 0, "replies": 3, "views": 2982, "isReply": true, "text_len": 94, "curation_score": 62.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1916138450845307198", "substance_score": 4.619000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.87, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.619000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1887412413513015614", "text": "@yanshiwoa @Kavintang15 新币第一波情绪可以逆势涨，就像ban和luce跌的时候，evan在涨，但随着时间，赛道关联性会越来越强的，就像现在的AI，老的都在跌，新的也能跑出来一两个。我不是做市商，我不知道evan的做市计划是什么，但之前说过这个逻辑，能不能护住盘不是做市商决定的，是市场决定的，什么时候自然抛压没有了，做市", "date": "2025-02-06 08:06:00", "date_only": "2025-02-06", "timestamp": 1738829160.0, "likes": 3, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 1085, "isReply": true, "text_len": 172, "curation_score": 31.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1887412413513015614", "substance_score": 4.523000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.84, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.8, "jev_depth": 1.87, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.523000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1950441761442337203", "text": "说说我理解的扒庄本质：“确认庄有投入成本去收回筹码”\n\n庄投入接筹的成本越高，庄弃盘的可能性越低，想出货只能先拉升，之前lam找出来的pythia就是个很好的例子。", "date": "2025-07-30 06:22:08", "date_only": "2025-07-30", "timestamp": 1753856528.0, "likes": 260, "retweets": 33, "replies": 34, "views": 119941, "isReply": false, "text_len": 82, "curation_score": 704.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1950441761442337203", "substance_score": 4.982, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.56, "jev_depth": 1.86, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.982, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2098140107287208207", "text": "开了一些sol，能去90左右再加\n\n这轮sol的管理层也明显在搞事，一方面通过了减少通缩的提案，另一方面bonkguy和ansem都在帮sol唱多，尤其是bonkguy从不看好到看好的转变，他也发了条推讲逻辑，可以去看下，牛市初期各个链都启动了，就看谁跑的更快一些了，之前几乎一点sol的仓位没有，还是买些吧。", "date": "2026-09-10 20:02:37", "date_only": "2026-09-10", "timestamp": 1789070557.0, "likes": 176, "retweets": 10, "replies": 52, "views": 39198, "isReply": false, "text_len": 155, "curation_score": 492.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2098140107287208207", "substance_score": 5.042000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.85, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.86, "jev_has_rule": 0.2, "quality_score": 5.042000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2033326978334671061", "text": "这个月继续看反弹，等什么时候推特开始刷到60000和1700就是这轮btc和eth的周期底的时候就可以都出了。我的观点是，这波btc类似上轮33000-47000的反弹，eth清杠杆的速度稍微更快一些，但也还远没到周期底，就算周期底到了，还要底部再磨4-6个月，还早。 https://t.co/eNPyQVWrVP", "date": "2026-03-15 23:38:23", "date_only": "2026-03-15", "timestamp": 1773617903.0, "likes": 160, "retweets": 13, "replies": 49, "views": 60101, "isReply": false, "text_len": 158, "curation_score": 534.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2033326978334671061_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2033326978334671061", "substance_score": 6.074, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.77, "jev_depth": 1.86, "jev_has_rule": 0.54, "quality_score": 6.074, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1840048575356776929", "text": "分享个二级的小tip，大家可以观察一下，fida和uxlink这种类型的小币强庄盘，很多时候跟大盘是逆走势的，比如大盘都在涨的时候他不涨甚至大跌，大盘暴跌的时候他不跌甚至爆涨。背后逻辑也很简单，有两个原因，一是小币强庄盘本质是“注意力经济”，这样逆市最容易吸引大家注意力进来赌的，有人赌才有足够", "date": "2024-09-28 15:19:01", "date_only": "2024-09-28", "timestamp": 1727536741.0, "likes": 117, "retweets": 19, "replies": 20, "views": 57813, "isReply": false, "text_len": 147, "curation_score": 483.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1840048575356776929", "substance_score": 4.784, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.86, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.784, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2076502977108746414", "text": "海力士上了美股之后抛售挺符合预期的。前段时间身边冲海力士的朋友们都是冲着adr trade去的，觉得上了美股估值倍数能跟美光拉平了。\n\n逻辑有点像是某个币被市场预期要上upbit或者bsc的某个meme要上币安现货，而全市场都提前预知，那上了upbit或币安现货的那一刻所有人都会抛售。\n\n等今天这波adr", "date": "2026-07-13 03:04:23", "date_only": "2026-07-13", "timestamp": 1783911863.0, "likes": 82, "retweets": 5, "replies": 35, "views": 35510, "isReply": false, "text_len": 153, "curation_score": 344.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2076502977108746414", "substance_score": 4.398, "jev_is_substantive": 0.7, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.94, "jev_depth": 1.86, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.398, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1915469196064108974", "text": "@cryptopainter 不过这个模式有个问题，kol把广告费都去回购了代币，最终还是要面临要想“赚钱”就得出货砸盘把粉丝当流动性，一砸盘被套牢的粉丝就要维权了😂", "date": "2025-04-24 18:13:38", "date_only": "2025-04-24", "timestamp": 1745518418.0, "likes": 7, "retweets": 0, "replies": 3, "views": 2573, "isReply": true, "text_len": 83, "curation_score": 25.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1915469196064108974", "substance_score": 4.188000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.68, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.71, "jev_depth": 1.86, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.188000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1973173653035716776", "text": "你只要还能看到时间线上还有人喊抄底某山寨，那大概率就不是底，因为当真的到了底，项目方要操盘二段收回筹码时，是不会打广子，也不会传播到你这里的。\n\n同理，后面一段行情，你想抄底，不该抄底前几天的大热门的币，这些币一旦开始派发会派发彻底。", "date": "2025-09-30 23:50:33", "date_only": "2025-09-30", "timestamp": 1759276233.0, "likes": 344, "retweets": 38, "replies": 37, "views": 59064, "isReply": false, "text_len": 117, "curation_score": 637.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1973173653035716776", "substance_score": 5.239000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.57, "jev_depth": 1.85, "jev_has_rule": 0.18, "quality_score": 5.239000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2029455896770953417", "text": "说个上轮亏了不少钱买到的教训：\n“熊市多单不要做右侧，空单可以做，牛市则反过来”\n\n熊市多画门，抄底的人也都很纸手，上方还有套牢盘等着砸 https://t.co/ZCaplAuy23", "date": "2026-03-05 07:16:05", "date_only": "2026-03-05", "timestamp": 1772694965.0, "likes": 302, "retweets": 53, "replies": 70, "views": 59447, "isReply": false, "text_len": 92, "curation_score": 682.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2029455896770953417_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2029455896770953417", "substance_score": 6.055000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.48, "jev_depth": 1.85, "jev_has_rule": 0.4, "quality_score": 6.055000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1979141764801077568", "text": "还是这个判断，主流谨慎抄，情绪上刚开始，降息那会儿发过一篇帖子，降息前后为了避险我的主流长期仓位就清的差不多了，一直在等降息后能出现一颗可以把市场杠杆降下来的雷，再迎接大放水后的暴涨，看起来美股市场也开始了，再等等看。", "date": "2025-10-17 11:05:42", "date_only": "2025-10-17", "timestamp": 1760699142.0, "likes": 187, "retweets": 11, "replies": 29, "views": 132865, "isReply": false, "text_len": 109, "curation_score": 648.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1979141764801077568", "substance_score": 5.1290000000000004, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.85, "jev_has_rule": 0.12, "quality_score": 5.1290000000000004, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1967119307290407435", "text": "随便举几个例子，hype、pump、pendle、aave、link、mkr。上轮周期的很多老defi协议因为怕被sec认定成证券，所以一直不敢开放分红和回购，比如uni和ldo，但这轮周期连总统的wlfi都直接回购了，相信会有越来越多的山寨币去挂钩收益和币价。", "date": "2025-09-14 06:52:44", "date_only": "2025-09-14", "timestamp": 1757832764.0, "likes": 80, "retweets": 10, "replies": 4, "views": 17217, "isReply": true, "text_len": 131, "curation_score": 239.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1967119307290407435", "substance_score": 4.611000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.81, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.73, "jev_depth": 1.85, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.611000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1999266369280614512", "text": "最后一句是句玩笑，每个项目都单拎出来当一个零和游戏来看待，比如Met，空投给的多社区优先级高，那说明二级买盘优先级低了，空，比如某项目开盘估值跟kol轮和vc们一样了，则说明二级买盘优先级高（因为要市场合力低开冲上所），根据每场游戏的优先级排序调整你的策略", "date": "2025-12-11 23:53:41", "date_only": "2025-12-11", "timestamp": 1765497221.0, "likes": 35, "retweets": 2, "replies": 4, "views": 7044, "isReply": true, "text_len": 128, "curation_score": 97.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1999266369280614512", "substance_score": 4.545000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.81, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.73, "jev_depth": 1.85, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 4.545000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1839529538524696690", "text": "@susie221129 我二级大仓位上基本是现货策略，二级这些项目的投研早就做完了，合约只有看到明显的庄操盘信号的时候才会进去玩，每天花10分钟扫一眼币安涨幅前20的币，主要精力现在放在一级，因为要枯坐，看到新项目随时做研究，所以也就跟刷推特的时间结合在一起了。", "date": "2024-09-27 04:56:33", "date_only": "2024-09-27", "timestamp": 1727412993.0, "likes": 3, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 429, "isReply": true, "text_len": 132, "curation_score": 60.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1839529538524696690", "substance_score": 4.6450000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.94, "jev_depth": 1.85, "jev_has_rule": 0.18, "quality_score": 4.6450000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2000589221929893954", "text": "前段时间开空了30多个空单，每个空2-4wu，挑选的标准是要么是控不住筹且估值虚高的大卡车、要么是已经开始派发的长期垃圾、投资人已经解锁或者项目方已经做过OTC。MON、ALLO、XPL、SOON、2Z、SAHARA、ENA、SEI、HOME、STRK、ZKC、CC、PLUME、PROVE、ACH、MOVE、W、SAND、ZK、NXPC、ZEC、KITE.....", "date": "2025-12-15 15:30:14", "date_only": "2025-12-15", "timestamp": 1765812614.0, "likes": 401, "retweets": 45, "replies": 67, "views": 83364, "isReply": false, "text_len": 183, "curation_score": 731.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2000589221929893954", "substance_score": 5.1080000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.84, "jev_has_rule": 0.26, "quality_score": 5.1080000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2076598911280841032", "text": "我觉得这波存储崩盘前还是给了挺多信号的，除了所内费率已经很夸张了，几家hyperscaler股价提前撑不住了之外，我觉得最明显的一个就是“龙二和杂毛“的补涨到崩盘过程，这个逻辑在之前3月开始的几次空白银的交易里聊过，可以看下面这个帖子。 https://t.co/2H42E0eUz1", "date": "2026-07-13 09:25:36", "date_only": "2026-07-13", "timestamp": 1783934736.0, "likes": 385, "retweets": 58, "replies": 92, "views": 92324, "isReply": false, "text_len": 142, "curation_score": 778.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2076598911280841032_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2076598911280841032", "substance_score": 5.532, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.56, "jev_depth": 1.84, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.532, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2099030817830031626", "text": "这期的币安上币明显比之前好太多了，熊市的时候还会上一些高控的阴谋盘，现在只选热度大的上，甚至robinhood链的也开始上，哈基米能上币安就是一个特别明显的信号。估计币安也想通了，牛市的时候选热门标让大家参与进来博弈远远好过选个高控盘，因为高控盘砸起来更狠（可以看一下牛来的交易量）。只要", "date": "2026-09-13 07:01:59", "date_only": "2026-09-13", "timestamp": 1789282919.0, "likes": 177, "retweets": 6, "replies": 25, "views": 46983, "isReply": false, "text_len": 144, "curation_score": 482.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2099030817830031626", "substance_score": 4.822, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.47, "jev_depth": 1.84, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.822, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1841171925638553878", "text": "不是….为什么还会有这么多人去做多cati和hamster啊😵‍💫，这玩意是吸引撸毛的来给ton做虚假繁荣、给老鼠仓和交易所印钱的，这么简单的逻辑很难理解吗？？？不像dogs，做市商还适当做做提拉和护盘，这俩币的做市商直接就是现货砸到底了。 https://t.co/oFWqEemYPG", "date": "2024-10-01 17:42:49", "date_only": "2024-10-01", "timestamp": 1727804569.0, "likes": 72, "retweets": 4, "replies": 32, "views": 70973, "isReply": false, "text_len": 144, "curation_score": 366.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1841171925638553878_0.jpg", "images/1841171925638553878_1.jpg", "images/1841171925638553878_2.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1841171925638553878", "substance_score": 4.944, "jev_is_substantive": 0.7, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.87, "jev_depth": 1.84, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.944, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1832303847269921258", "text": "继dogs后拿Neiro举例说明下这种强控盘的新上币的做市商都是怎么操作的，上来先砸，一旦散户们开始追空、funding rate变负，直接15分钟拉16%拉爆你，现在好了funding rate马上又正常了，等下一波散户进来赌方向再收割你😂。骂归骂，尊重你自己的钱，别随便空，不会玩就别碰。 https://t.co/96wB1J5KN2", "date": "2024-09-07 06:24:14", "date_only": "2024-09-07", "timestamp": 1725690254.0, "likes": 52, "retweets": 8, "replies": 11, "views": 38768, "isReply": false, "text_len": 170, "curation_score": 269.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1832303847269921258_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1832303847269921258", "substance_score": 5.136, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.53, "jev_depth": 1.84, "jev_has_rule": 0.1, "quality_score": 5.136, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1881664558944887218", "text": "@timallinweb3 一个币是我的仓位是因为我认为基本面好才买的，对于“基本面”意见不合的话欢迎讨论\n\n1. Virtual的流动性本身并不差，virtual上的$game涨到4个亿了，也是游戏赛道，也在virtual上。\n2. 游戏这个赛道我做vc的时候就看过的，大游戏有大游戏的做法，小游戏有小游戏的做法，clash of", "date": "2025-01-21 11:26:05", "date_only": "2025-01-21", "timestamp": 1737458765.0, "likes": 4, "retweets": 1, "replies": 4, "views": 1803, "isReply": true, "text_len": 166, "curation_score": 97.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1881664558944887218", "substance_score": 4.3759999999999994, "jev_is_substantive": 0.79, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.83, "jev_depth": 1.84, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.3759999999999994, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2081952186683326582", "text": "你得去找下一个暴涨的东西，而不是等已经暴涨的东西开跌两周就抄进去，大趋势破了之后，上方全是套牢盘和卸杠杆的，逢高空比接飞刀博反弹的策略要好很多。币圈是这样，黄金是这样，存储也是，而我还真认识10w抄btc，5000抄黄金，1500抄海力士的朋友。", "date": "2026-07-28 03:57:36", "date_only": "2026-07-28", "timestamp": 1785211056.0, "likes": 1230, "retweets": 128, "replies": 160, "views": 226622, "isReply": false, "text_len": 123, "curation_score": 850, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2081952186683326582", "substance_score": 5.2170000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.76, "jev_depth": 1.83, "jev_has_rule": 0.14, "quality_score": 5.2170000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1988031857653674417", "text": "争吵了两轮周期的事情终于尘埃落定，uniswap打开fee switch，币价也终于和业务挂钩了，简单解释下这个回购，然后跟大家算几个数字吧。\n\n1. 烧了1亿枚币，占总量10%，大约9.5亿美元（为之前没有烧做弥补）\n\n2.", "date": "2025-11-10 23:51:45", "date_only": "2025-11-10", "timestamp": 1762818705.0, "likes": 251, "retweets": 43, "replies": 63, "views": 109339, "isReply": false, "text_len": 113, "curation_score": 794.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1988031857653674417", "substance_score": 4.749, "jev_is_substantive": 0.74, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.52, "jev_depth": 1.83, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.749, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2087411666589974801", "text": "有小伙伴问我之前说过的周期抄底三个信号现在出现了几个？来复盘一下。\n1. 投降式换手量（capitulation volume）\n2. 投降事件\n3. MVRV跌倒0\n\n目前前两个已经出现，第三个暂时还没有\n\n1. https://t.co/s7pnGiu9kY", "date": "2026-08-12 05:31:38", "date_only": "2026-08-12", "timestamp": 1786512698.0, "likes": 212, "retweets": 32, "replies": 111, "views": 44730, "isReply": false, "text_len": 131, "curation_score": 665.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2087411666589974801_0.jpg", "images/2087411666589974801_1.jpg", "images/2087411666589974801_2.jpg", "images/2087411666589974801_3.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2087411666589974801", "substance_score": 5.637, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.4, "jev_depth": 1.83, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 5.637, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1975495264204161272", "text": "最近不少妖庄开始爆拉，去盯一下1-5分钟合约的暴涨提醒挺有用的，很多时候能蹭车吃一口。不过提醒大家两个点。\n\n第一：不要幻想下一个Myx或者AIA，现在散户都是多头思维，很多也都在底部埋伏进去了，庄没有对手盘是不可能拉这么高的", "date": "2025-10-07 09:35:48", "date_only": "2025-10-07", "timestamp": 1759829748.0, "likes": 135, "retweets": 14, "replies": 16, "views": 35372, "isReply": false, "text_len": 113, "curation_score": 435.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1975495264204161272", "substance_score": 4.975, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.43, "jev_depth": 1.83, "jev_has_rule": 0.08, "quality_score": 4.975, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1991751674315305293", "text": "@follow_clues 我觉得早晚有一天会爆的，当btc涨不动了，债权人选择不convert而是要回本金，mstr被迫卖btc砸盘还债，砸出来的资金不够偿还。然后boom。\n\n不过这轮周期应该看不到了", "date": "2025-11-21 06:12:58", "date_only": "2025-11-21", "timestamp": 1763705578.0, "likes": 31, "retweets": 1, "replies": 6, "views": 11169, "isReply": true, "text_len": 102, "curation_score": 126.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1991751674315305293", "substance_score": 4.407, "jev_is_substantive": 0.79, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.7, "jev_depth": 1.83, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.407, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2029463226220724545", "text": "@0xMorfly 如果我是昨天晚上右侧追多的，我就不会拿过夜单了，这个位置把止损放成本位很容易被插到，插到那也并不改变向上形态", "date": "2026-03-05 07:45:13", "date_only": "2026-03-05", "timestamp": 1772696713.0, "likes": 3, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 1276, "isReply": true, "text_len": 64, "curation_score": -7.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2029463226220724545", "substance_score": 4.639, "jev_is_substantive": 0.84, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.9, "jev_depth": 1.83, "jev_has_rule": 0.26, "quality_score": 4.639, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1831179871458033866", "text": "@Web3liyang_ 29号有一整天都可以做空，快速拉起来然后砸下去、费率突然骤降、open interest突然暴涨，这三点都满足了，开一个前高止损的低倍空单不过分吧😂", "date": "2024-09-04 03:57:57", "date_only": "2024-09-04", "timestamp": 1725422277.0, "likes": 1, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 811, "isReply": true, "text_len": 87, "curation_score": 43.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1831179871458033866", "substance_score": 4.463, "jev_is_substantive": 0.61, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.83, "jev_has_rule": 0.62, "quality_score": 4.463, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1909704663169220709", "text": "再强调下：“市场是预期的奴隶”。当短期所有利空都被翻出来了的时候，你就当市场已经充分price in了它就行了。\n\n所以在当下做交易决策的逻辑链一定不应该是：“这么高的关税，中美经济得崩的多厉害？”\n\n而是“还有什么新的利空是可在现在去预期的吗？”", "date": "2025-04-08 20:27:26", "date_only": "2025-04-08", "timestamp": 1744144046.0, "likes": 277, "retweets": 31, "replies": 64, "views": 131640, "isReply": false, "text_len": 124, "curation_score": 698.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1909704663169220709", "substance_score": 5.1419999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.52, "jev_depth": 1.82, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.1419999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1939902798839099604", "text": "预测一下，美股到链上这波最大的受益者不会是蓝筹股，这点增量流动性连点水花都起不来，但在美股里没有流动性的资产，一旦到了链上脱离了监管，各种金融工具和骚操作就来了。最直接的，股东在美股没法减持出来的股票，通过期现联动合约出货，大批炒山寨的要转去炒垃圾链上股了。", "date": "2025-07-01 04:24:03", "date_only": "2025-07-01", "timestamp": 1751343843.0, "likes": 241, "retweets": 35, "replies": 54, "views": 68948, "isReply": false, "text_len": 129, "curation_score": 677.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1939902798839099604", "substance_score": 4.974, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.56, "jev_depth": 1.82, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.974, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2047199262375895045", "text": "最近对MSTR越来越担心，大家有没有感觉现在全市场都在盯着微策略的新融资了？上轮周期还有各种利好预期吊着，ETF，加密总统，SEC法案等等。这轮btc全靠着MSTR融资撑着，MSTR的买盘又都是“债市”融来的资金。", "date": "2026-04-23 06:21:53", "date_only": "2026-04-23", "timestamp": 1776925313.0, "likes": 153, "retweets": 14, "replies": 53, "views": 59489, "isReply": false, "text_len": 107, "curation_score": 540.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2047199262375895045", "substance_score": 4.728, "jev_is_substantive": 0.81, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.63, "jev_depth": 1.82, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.728, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1868885124420653388", "text": "为什么大家愿意玩meme？不愿意玩vc币？因为meme币都需要经过内盘、外盘、上所的过程，大家都有底部参与拿到大倍数的机会，能不能抓住全各凭本事，有人靠链上分析、有人靠pvp、有人靠跟着KOL、有人靠各种打听内幕。而vc币里第一根线完全是做市商画出来的，之后所有上的人本质上都是接盘的。", "date": "2024-12-17 05:05:10", "date_only": "2024-12-17", "timestamp": 1734411910.0, "likes": 143, "retweets": 15, "replies": 24, "views": 82669, "isReply": true, "text_len": 143, "curation_score": 464.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1868885124420653388", "substance_score": 4.64, "jev_is_substantive": 0.77, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.82, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.64, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1994894218280800713", "text": "Sahara这种没啥可洗的，不需要等什么项目方公告，就是团队/做市商操盘砸的。看价格走势，先砸盘10%清多头杠杆，接着拉盘诱多，然后五分钟倾泻60%，黑客/agency/advisor/投资人筹码砸盘就不可能是这么画的。 https://t.co/7vThybC8Jx", "date": "2025-11-29 22:20:19", "date_only": "2025-11-29", "timestamp": 1764454819.0, "likes": 65, "retweets": 1, "replies": 23, "views": 10988, "isReply": false, "text_len": 134, "curation_score": 212.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1994894218280800713_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1994894218280800713", "substance_score": 4.812, "jev_is_substantive": 0.65, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.48, "jev_depth": 1.82, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 4.812, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2030821846485213480", "text": "@dotyyds1234 eth DAT在2500左右开始买，买了超过5%的筹码，感觉很多流通的短线博弈的筹码都被接走了，没被接走的像易理华他们这个价格该割的也都割了，我是觉得是提前崩了", "date": "2026-03-09 01:43:53", "date_only": "2026-03-09", "timestamp": 1773020633.0, "likes": 23, "retweets": 1, "replies": 2, "views": 9178, "isReply": true, "text_len": 93, "curation_score": 95.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2030821846485213480", "substance_score": 4.276, "jev_is_substantive": 0.72, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.74, "jev_depth": 1.82, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 4.276, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1887430964777001085", "text": "@carolzeng08 @Kavintang15 因为我知道现在资金不在meme这里，蓝筹meme都还在跌，让我去反我自己的交易逻辑喊人上车我实在喊不下去，等什么时候meme市场回暖了，我认为的确是好的入场时机了，我自然会call。所以我现在能做的建设是帮他们的AI团队找方向，帮他们介绍交易所，和帮他们找钱。但最终还是要看市场能不能回来，还有创始", "date": "2025-02-06 09:19:43", "date_only": "2025-02-06", "timestamp": 1738833583.0, "likes": 6, "retweets": 0, "replies": 3, "views": 1464, "isReply": true, "text_len": 175, "curation_score": 51.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1887430964777001085", "substance_score": 4.358, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.86, "jev_depth": 1.82, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 4.358, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2098686328229523775", "text": "这两天有两个朋友来跟我说，build的庄又在放要攒新盘的消息了，说有资源上alpha和合约。这段时间stock meme热度高，肯定会有很多dev想趁着币安的上币窗口搞一个合约盘子出来。但能明显感觉到，最近币安的上币策略还是非常尊重市场和热度的，包括上pons和amc这些robinhood的币，好事是在现在这个市场，纯阴谋盘在bsc已经基本跑不出来了。\n\nIQ test", "date": "2026-09-12 08:13:07", "date_only": "2026-09-12", "timestamp": 1789200787.0, "likes": 0, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 0, "isReply": false, "text_len": 186, "curation_score": 175.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2098686328229523775", "substance_score": 4.226, "jev_is_substantive": 0.74, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.76, "jev_depth": 1.82, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.226, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1890610053482443162", "text": "经常看到大家说：某某币web2曝光量多大，或者某某币社区多强大，不应该只值这个钱。我来讲讲为什么很多时候流量巨大就是起不来。\n\n这跟每个阶段市场的Meta有关（当前市场共识的买盘逻辑），且是个自我实现，自我强化的链条。\n\n比如popcat那会儿，市场的共识是：“IP越强，买盘就该越大”", "date": "2025-02-15 03:52:17", "date_only": "2025-02-15", "timestamp": 1739591537.0, "likes": 276, "retweets": 51, "replies": 93, "views": 98698, "isReply": false, "text_len": 143, "curation_score": 755.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1890610053482443162", "substance_score": 5.011, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.9, "jev_depth": 1.81, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.011, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1857089352532148345", "text": "最近看到太多卖飞的故事了，为什么你金狗永远拿不住？对大部分人来说是因为太贪婪，上了让自己不舒服的仓位，你抽10%-20%的资金去分散投meme永远不会拿着不舒服。资金再小也慢慢来，投机跟赌博不一样，很多时候退一步能让你进十步。", "date": "2024-11-14 15:52:59", "date_only": "2024-11-14", "timestamp": 1731599579.0, "likes": 139, "retweets": 12, "replies": 32, "views": 30863, "isReply": false, "text_len": 113, "curation_score": 426.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1857089352532148345", "substance_score": 4.957, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.81, "jev_has_rule": 0.22, "quality_score": 4.957, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2088490128692134063", "text": "还记得你用的ai大模型1年前、2年前的模样吗？\n\n我用AI基本在投资投研上用，记得最初chatgpt经常会无法理解我问题的意思、每次需要我解释很久给很多context\n\n后来我用它帮我找数据，我会让多个模型去交叉对比数据，因为他有一本正经胡说八道的问题，尤其是chatgpt\n\n再后来我开始让他在找数据之外给出一些问题的判断，但还仍需要我不断的去跟他问答去告诉他下一步解题的思路\n\n但也就一年多时间，我问的问题他解答的比我好，思考的维度开始比我更多，会给出更清晰的交易计划，我在问出第一个问题的时候，他已经能给出接着第一个问题的答案对应的第二第三个问题是什么以及答案\n\n一年多前我可以说AI没有我聪明，到今天我也不确定了，投研上被他完全淘汰也就再过一两年的时间，下一步就是交易\n\n当你的所有“能力”都长在一个无限自我进化、不断学习你的大模型上，不管是个人的能力、还是搭建在大模型上的商业，最终都会被这个模型吞噬，大部分行业被AI吞噬掉只是时间问题。", "date": "2026-08-15 04:57:03", "date_only": "2026-08-15", "timestamp": 1786769823.0, "likes": 93, "retweets": 5, "replies": 38, "views": 15955, "isReply": false, "text_len": 424, "curation_score": 316.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2088490128692134063", "substance_score": 4.377, "jev_is_substantive": 0.72, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.42, "jev_depth": 1.81, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.377, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2076007224825327838", "text": "我觉得这个\"大V“的推特喊单历史值得学习下，12万高点的时候对着持续增长的m2和不断新高的美股看BTC新高；等BTC腰斩了之后全清了仓位开始担心量子计算和待挖的币太少，矿场没有利益所以要出清了。\n\n别让你的屁股坐在哪决定了你的眼睛，黑和白永远是并存的，并不会因为你有或没有仓位有任何变化。", "date": "2026-07-11 18:14:27", "date_only": "2026-07-11", "timestamp": 1783793667.0, "likes": 67, "retweets": 6, "replies": 26, "views": 25260, "isReply": false, "text_len": 144, "curation_score": 304.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2076007224825327838", "substance_score": 4.613, "jev_is_substantive": 0.85, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.76, "jev_depth": 1.81, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.613, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1985945055669219464", "text": "一觉醒来大盘又崩了，最近找找局部山寨的机会吧（还是做空为主），个人觉得这个位置主流币还不能接（可以看看最弱的sol，快一年周期的lower high，如果周期结束了，看到至少50），跟之前一样，抄底时我会按头喊🥸", "date": "2025-11-05 05:39:33", "date_only": "2025-11-05", "timestamp": 1762321173.0, "likes": 143, "retweets": 7, "replies": 50, "views": 67098, "isReply": false, "text_len": 106, "curation_score": 504.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1985945055669219464", "substance_score": 4.8740000000000006, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.8, "jev_has_rule": 0.15, "quality_score": 4.8740000000000006, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2038443186423767489", "text": "其实这个市场里大部分交易了几年都豪无长进，不断充钱不断亏的人，本质上是一直没有建立“正向反馈的系统”，也就是战略的懒惰。\n\n最简单的系统：\n- 开每一单都必须有逻辑（这个逻辑可以是技术面、基本面、消息面，并有对应的信号，但不可以是“你感觉”）\n\n-", "date": "2026-03-30 02:28:22", "date_only": "2026-03-30", "timestamp": 1774837702.0, "likes": 568, "retweets": 100, "replies": 61, "views": 51232, "isReply": false, "text_len": 124, "curation_score": 707.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2038443186423767489", "substance_score": 5.1370000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.79, "jev_has_rule": 0.14, "quality_score": 5.1370000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2077390522587759039", "text": "熊市抄底就是很反人性，价格底部的时候看再好的标的的基本面都觉得差点意思，风险也很多，因为这个行业决定基本面的只有流动性，流动性没来的时候基本面看起来都很差。", "date": "2026-07-15 13:51:11", "date_only": "2026-07-15", "timestamp": 1784123471.0, "likes": 208, "retweets": 17, "replies": 84, "views": 118110, "isReply": false, "text_len": 78, "curation_score": 601.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2077390522587759039", "substance_score": 5.021, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.57, "jev_depth": 1.79, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.021, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1999262256555786702", "text": "在币圈甚至更大的金融行业要想赚到钱，身处每个生态位的人都得先理解一个残酷的底层逻辑：\n\n“零和游戏是无法让每个人都满意的，而流动性越差的时候满意的人越少”\n\nTge估值高开让VC满意了，就不可能让二级买盘满意；\n\n让社区空投满意了就不可能让交易所和投资人满意； https://t.co/92YZvrTS61", "date": "2025-12-11 23:37:21", "date_only": "2025-12-11", "timestamp": 1765496241.0, "likes": 173, "retweets": 13, "replies": 50, "views": 22660, "isReply": false, "text_len": 154, "curation_score": 448.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1999262256555786702_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1999262256555786702", "substance_score": 5.438999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.77, "jev_depth": 1.79, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 5.438999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1988596440940294483", "text": "现在项目方的窘境：只要空投多了，开盘一定被空投+空头合力搞下去。\n\n所以很多项目方选择眯了空投背刺社区，这样一搞控筹虽然是紧了，但大家也都知道，就没什么人去做空，也没什么人去做多了。", "date": "2025-11-12 13:15:12", "date_only": "2025-11-12", "timestamp": 1762953312.0, "likes": 121, "retweets": 2, "replies": 44, "views": 39752, "isReply": false, "text_len": 91, "curation_score": 387.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1988596440940294483", "substance_score": 4.499, "jev_is_substantive": 0.77, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.92, "jev_depth": 1.79, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.499, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1909675052431556764", "text": "可以去看看eth上次这么大换手量是什么时候，一次是22年11月ftx暴雷，一次是22年6月三箭资本暴雷，回头看都是周期级别最佳的抄底位，这个位置不敢抄真的别做交易了。 https://t.co/32PpfeH2Z8", "date": "2025-04-08 18:29:47", "date_only": "2025-04-08", "timestamp": 1744136987.0, "likes": 89, "retweets": 13, "replies": 24, "views": 188157, "isReply": true, "text_len": 107, "curation_score": 412.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1909675052431556764_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1909675052431556764", "substance_score": 5.295, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.31, "jev_depth": 1.79, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 5.295, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1920479982519803979", "text": "@Jerome_No1 有些策略尤其是短线的是要持续盯盘的，但盯盘不是焦虑的每一两分钟去看赚或亏了多少钱，这种要么是仓位开大了，要么就是在赌大小。", "date": "2025-05-08 14:04:43", "date_only": "2025-05-08", "timestamp": 1746713083.0, "likes": 6, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 783, "isReply": true, "text_len": 73, "curation_score": -4.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1920479982519803979", "substance_score": 4.5249999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.79, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 4.5249999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2039673825328341453", "text": "不知道有多少人还记得上轮熊市时候的upbit+币安合约爆空币，arpa、loom、hifi、gas、cyber，每个月两三个，操盘做法是币安合约开多，然后韩所现货拉盘爆空，最后一两天直接断头铡（当时还怀疑是不是在给韩国资方洗钱）", "date": "2026-04-02 11:58:29", "date_only": "2026-04-02", "timestamp": 1775131109.0, "likes": 136, "retweets": 13, "replies": 35, "views": 48908, "isReply": false, "text_len": 114, "curation_score": 445.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2039673825328341453", "substance_score": 4.51, "jev_is_substantive": 0.67, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.78, "jev_has_rule": 0.22, "quality_score": 4.51, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2049406510393155713", "text": "刚跟朋友聊到一个话题，原油一直是一个我很不喜欢交易的标的，主要是价格走势很不“干净”，这个资产全是消息和内幕驱动，所以很多时候你会看到盘面跌和涨的有些莫名其妙，散户在这个市场里没有优势，跟你博弈的都是信息比你多甚至能制造信息的，全是神仙打架。举个例子，昨天uae退出opec这种大利空出来", "date": "2026-04-29 08:32:42", "date_only": "2026-04-29", "timestamp": 1777451562.0, "likes": 91, "retweets": 3, "replies": 34, "views": 19589, "isReply": false, "text_len": 144, "curation_score": 289.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2049406510393155713", "substance_score": 4.42, "jev_is_substantive": 0.77, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.63, "jev_depth": 1.78, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.42, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2005934838117999068", "text": "Lighter开盘空头和空投合力向下是最确定性可以吃的一段，现在平空+买盘进来开始反弹了，还是维持之前的观点，这是个长期可以空的标的，等明后天可以找找阶段高点去做空。\n\n 按过去7天交易量算：\n\nHyperliquid 日交易量 $4-6b 左右，FDV 250亿 \nAster 日交易量 $3b 左右，FDV 56亿 \nLighter 日交易量 https://t.co/20ar7p8Crw", "date": "2025-12-30 09:31:48", "date_only": "2025-12-30", "timestamp": 1767087108.0, "likes": 72, "retweets": 2, "replies": 26, "views": 43492, "isReply": false, "text_len": 198, "curation_score": 361.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2005934838117999068_0.jpg", "images/2005934838117999068_1.jpg", "images/2005934838117999068_2.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2005934838117999068", "substance_score": 5.382, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.78, "jev_has_rule": 0.15, "quality_score": 5.382, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2010206603287601391", "text": "为什么对我意义很大？因为我复盘了一下我去年所有亏了10wu以上的单子，无一例外，全是情绪\n\n“比如palu、orange、bnbholder、Aster，还有二级各种合约单，突然fomo追多、或者空单被套了一直加”\n\n情绪就是每个交易员最大的对手盘", "date": "2026-01-11 04:26:16", "date_only": "2026-01-11", "timestamp": 1768105576.0, "likes": 61, "retweets": 2, "replies": 4, "views": 7855, "isReply": true, "text_len": 124, "curation_score": 153.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2010206603287601391", "substance_score": 4.324, "jev_is_substantive": 0.75, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.78, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.324, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1855934899116712275", "text": "@guhype 因为现在这些meme刚上币安才几亿，如果牛市飞到几十亿、百亿呢，到时候cex的用户都会大呼币安造富效应好强。链上本身就是更专业的地方，虽然肯定会有cex用户跑来dex玩，但大部分用户仍会留在交易所，币安只要保证交易所上有造富效应有交易量就够了。", "date": "2024-11-11 11:25:36", "date_only": "2024-11-11", "timestamp": 1731324336.0, "likes": 2, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 2158, "isReply": true, "text_len": 130, "curation_score": 32.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1855934899116712275", "substance_score": 4.2299999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.77, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.68, "jev_depth": 1.78, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.2299999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2077384251188924584", "text": "crypto七八月继续看反弹，然后九十月可能再来个最后一跌，不过不确定有没有，更不确定驱动的事件会是什么。\n\n最近的策略都是短线做做存储的反弹，观望下贵金属，然后逢低抄底crypto的蓝筹资产的现货，现在就是四年一次的建仓期，有三个月左右的时间窗口，记得把握好\n\n这轮的蓝筹资产并不多，不至于挑花眼\n币：btc eth hype\n股：mstr crcl coin hood\n\n每个对应的风险和盈亏比也不一样，自己判断更喜欢哪个，哪个的波动更适合自己的交易风格吧。", "date": "2026-07-15 13:26:16", "date_only": "2026-07-15", "timestamp": 1784121976.0, "likes": 246, "retweets": 24, "replies": 106, "views": 75229, "isReply": false, "text_len": 231, "curation_score": 727.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2077384251188924584", "substance_score": 5.071000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.71, "jev_depth": 1.77, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 5.071000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1967294354915234222", "text": "币圈的资产发行在未来只会越来越两极化，一切中间态的资产都会无路可走。\n\n一边，有PMF和现金流的优质资产会越来越像股票，有回购有分红，机构们认业务逻辑，通过币股去美股吸更大池子里的流动性。", "date": "2025-09-14 18:28:19", "date_only": "2025-09-14", "timestamp": 1757874499.0, "likes": 193, "retweets": 19, "replies": 38, "views": 97466, "isReply": false, "text_len": 94, "curation_score": 661.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1967294354915234222", "substance_score": 4.933, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.34, "jev_depth": 1.77, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.933, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2043987849071272407", "text": "CRCL这个位置是第一批趋势投资人刚刚开始入场的地方，出了Higher high和higher low，趋势确认逆转，\n\n可以参考下Coinbase上轮周期趋势逆转后的走势 https://t.co/RdCtRw02n4", "date": "2026-04-14 09:40:53", "date_only": "2026-04-14", "timestamp": 1776159653.0, "likes": 163, "retweets": 21, "replies": 24, "views": 97086, "isReply": false, "text_len": 110, "curation_score": 606.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2043987849071272407_0.png", "images/2043987849071272407_1.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2043987849071272407", "substance_score": 5.321000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.8, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.78, "jev_depth": 1.77, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 5.321000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1833663176560476458", "text": "今天trump发了magacat的图，有个阴毛盘直接狙到6m拿了92%的筹码，我来解释一下为什么就算你想通过阴毛盘赚钱当天出来的盘也一定不能上。逻辑非常非常简单，阴毛盘能起来的基础是上的散户少，这种大热点当天的阴毛盘必有很多散户冲，所以庄拉盘成本过高，不可能让散户搭车free-ride。neiro当天的阴毛盘 https://t.co/WnrmqTRIeh", "date": "2024-09-11 00:25:43", "date_only": "2024-09-11", "timestamp": 1726014343.0, "likes": 28, "retweets": 3, "replies": 9, "views": 17398, "isReply": false, "text_len": 179, "curation_score": 205.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1833663176560476458_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1833663176560476458", "substance_score": 4.938999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.74, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.96, "jev_depth": 1.77, "jev_has_rule": 0.17, "quality_score": 4.938999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2087147248006336825", "text": "@ah1n1l 我对coinbase的交易所业务不感兴趣，可以看下过去5年的收入你就理解我的意思了，crypto交易所业务已经到顶，一轮周期了去年收入都没超过21年。", "date": "2026-08-11 12:00:55", "date_only": "2026-08-11", "timestamp": 1786449655.0, "likes": 3, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 1746, "isReply": true, "text_len": 83, "curation_score": 33.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2087147248006336825", "substance_score": 4.1770000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.75, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.81, "jev_depth": 1.77, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.1770000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2094628905634468091", "text": "如果你是一个只看“基本面”的投资人，你大概率不太适合在crypto行业做投资，因为这个行业的基本面都是由“流动性”定义的，而流动性又是极具周期性且能很快变化的。\n\n回到2022年，coinbase和robinhood这两个上轮表现最好的币股标的，都不会是你会选择抄底的机会。 https://t.co/fZxfn1bJGq", "date": "2026-09-01 03:30:22", "date_only": "2026-09-01", "timestamp": 1788233422.0, "likes": 343, "retweets": 52, "replies": 62, "views": 103933, "isReply": false, "text_len": 161, "curation_score": 761.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2094628905634468091_0.jpg", "images/2094628905634468091_1.jpg", "images/2094628905634468091_2.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2094628905634468091", "substance_score": 5.572, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.46, "jev_depth": 1.76, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 5.572, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2076588798616768632", "text": "重温一下。\n\n现在抄底存储只做反弹，已经深套的话有反弹一定要跑。\n\n如果你已经被存储股低PE的叙事洗脑，记得去看这篇：“炒存储股本质上就是在炒存储商品价格”\nhttps://t.co/bZQwPkqh4i", "date": "2026-07-13 08:45:25", "date_only": "2026-07-13", "timestamp": 1783932325.0, "likes": 123, "retweets": 7, "replies": 42, "views": 70736, "isReply": false, "text_len": 102, "curation_score": 452.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2076588798616768632", "substance_score": 5.2299999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.54, "jev_depth": 1.76, "jev_has_rule": 0.57, "quality_score": 5.2299999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1873734944490721425", "text": "所以当你抓到庄的确有护盘行为，说明是想把盘子往长期做，那你考虑建仓位置的时候，就是要去判断散户们会在哪个位置买盘超过卖盘，因为这个问题也是“庄”不断在判断和测试的。", "date": "2024-12-30 14:16:37", "date_only": "2024-12-30", "timestamp": 1735568197.0, "likes": 67, "retweets": 4, "replies": 3, "views": 16385, "isReply": true, "text_len": 82, "curation_score": 185.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1873734944490721425", "substance_score": 4.57, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.46, "jev_depth": 1.76, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.57, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1985958233891307952", "text": "@qingshui_eth mon应该是mmt爆了大户导致共享保证金平掉了他们mon的仓位，本来流动性就差，直接连环踩踏了", "date": "2025-11-05 06:31:54", "date_only": "2025-11-05", "timestamp": 1762324314.0, "likes": 7, "retweets": 1, "replies": 1, "views": 3958, "isReply": true, "text_len": 61, "curation_score": 21.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1985958233891307952", "substance_score": 3.9619999999999997, "jev_is_substantive": 0.64, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.5, "jev_depth": 1.76, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 3.9619999999999997, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2079736677418009085", "text": "最近两年在做跨市场交易，愈发理解投资得“从上到下”的做，就是你得先能够找到Beta，才能去试图找Alpha。说的更简单些，你得先在对的时间点，找到那个能起势的板块/赛道，再去找这个板块中能带来超额收益的公司/标的，择时和赛道的重要性远超单一标的的选择，而大部分社交媒体的讨论则都放在了后者。", "date": "2026-07-22 01:13:58", "date_only": "2026-07-22", "timestamp": 1784682838.0, "likes": 276, "retweets": 35, "replies": 28, "views": 71043, "isReply": false, "text_len": 145, "curation_score": 637.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2079736677418009085", "substance_score": 5.029, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.67, "jev_depth": 1.75, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.029, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1887904739830153546", "text": "怎么打破高开盘vc币的不断恶性循环？\n\n等到彻底没散户去玩vc币了，项目方发vc项目赚不到钱也融不到资了，上所能掏出来的流动性也不够交上币费和服务费了，投资人投vc币也赚不到钱了，做市商再怎么高开也cover不住做市费用了，恶性循环自然也就打破了。", "date": "2025-02-07 16:42:20", "date_only": "2025-02-07", "timestamp": 1738946540.0, "likes": 172, "retweets": 41, "replies": 76, "views": 86613, "isReply": false, "text_len": 124, "curation_score": 644.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1887904739830153546", "substance_score": 4.621, "jev_is_substantive": 0.74, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.88, "jev_depth": 1.75, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.621, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2005208255090528703", "text": "这两天lighter快上了，其实现在这个市场这类的大卡车项目不用分析太多，女巫了多少影响的是量，不影响质。\n\n“开盘往下砸是空投和空头最共识的时候，买盘（就算有主动做市商）也要等空投砸的差不多了再接，不可能开盘顶着砸盘硬拉的”", "date": "2025-12-28 09:24:37", "date_only": "2025-12-28", "timestamp": 1766913877.0, "likes": 150, "retweets": 11, "replies": 49, "views": 51008, "isReply": false, "text_len": 113, "curation_score": 450.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2005208255090528703", "substance_score": 4.809, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.91, "jev_depth": 1.75, "jev_has_rule": 0.15, "quality_score": 4.809, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1840224305294279129", "text": "这个观点太认同了，尤其是“这是中心化交易所最后的2年好时光”，其实看看我自己的后台数据就能看出来，二级的曝光量大但大家普遍更愿意看一级的内容，很明显散户们都在加速逃离二级。这个趋势下，这两年很大概率能跑出来个10亿美金以上收入的交易工具，变成“新形态的交易所”，产品的底层逻辑从“如何把散", "date": "2024-09-29 02:57:18", "date_only": "2024-09-29", "timestamp": 1727578638.0, "likes": 68, "retweets": 9, "replies": 18, "views": 47987, "isReply": false, "text_len": 144, "curation_score": 330.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1840224305294279129", "substance_score": 4.5329999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.69, "jev_depth": 1.75, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.5329999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1938090885142790497", "text": "短线交易，除了去看oi、成交量、费率这些的变化去观察做市商动向，其实盯实时的裸k更直接，越单一庄家主导的山寨会越容易感知到这种变化。", "date": "2025-06-26 04:24:09", "date_only": "2025-06-26", "timestamp": 1750911849.0, "likes": 189, "retweets": 18, "replies": 32, "views": 40861, "isReply": false, "text_len": 66, "curation_score": 499.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1938090885142790497", "substance_score": 4.852, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.74, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.852, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2094783028782572028", "text": "AI确实改变了链上，也就一年多前，dev稍微写点代码搓点垃圾产品，哥们看到就说“这产品牛逼”，现在哥们自己也能搓产品了，看到再精美的网站和产品也只会说“Codex搓的没用玩意”\n\nPons能成为robinhood上的市值第一名，说明链上群体不再只是追情绪，开始认收入，认市场份额，认估值，认逻辑了，这样也才能良币驱除劣币，这难道不比谁接痰速度快好多了吗。", "date": "2026-09-01 13:42:47", "date_only": "2026-09-01", "timestamp": 1788270167.0, "likes": 138, "retweets": 3, "replies": 66, "views": 23564, "isReply": false, "text_len": 177, "curation_score": 368.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2094783028782572028", "substance_score": 4.194, "jev_is_substantive": 0.64, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.18, "jev_depth": 1.74, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.194, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1855529885034520948", "text": "给没经历过牛市中后期的小白喊句话，听懂能救你命\n\n山寨季一旦开启，切记不要拿长线做空单子！\n\n短线空单也要极度确定性机会且配上极其严格的止损策略才能上（你如果不知道什么是极度确定性的机会或者不懂止损策略，就远离合约）", "date": "2024-11-10 08:36:13", "date_only": "2024-11-10", "timestamp": 1731227773.0, "likes": 93, "retweets": 9, "replies": 33, "views": 26922, "isReply": false, "text_len": 108, "curation_score": 370.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1855529885034520948", "substance_score": 5.296, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.75, "jev_depth": 1.74, "jev_has_rule": 0.73, "quality_score": 5.296, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2098121495860158808", "text": "信心值万金，一旦有一个bsc的meme能上了现货还有市场合力拉起来，那下一个上了现货大家抛售或者做空前就会犹豫，这对于bsc链上是非常大的好事。", "date": "2026-09-10 18:48:40", "date_only": "2026-09-10", "timestamp": 1789066120.0, "likes": 29, "retweets": 2, "replies": 4, "views": 7016, "isReply": true, "text_len": 72, "curation_score": 78.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2098121495860158808", "substance_score": 4.32, "jev_is_substantive": 0.81, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.91, "jev_depth": 1.74, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.32, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1835582675387928926", "text": "@guhype 套娃是套上了，但是全部是场内存量资金，没水抬没法螺旋升天，eigen这套逻辑放在货币宽松的大牛市我觉得没什么问题", "date": "2024-09-16 07:33:07", "date_only": "2024-09-16", "timestamp": 1726471987.0, "likes": 5, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 4788, "isReply": true, "text_len": 64, "curation_score": 2.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1835582675387928926", "substance_score": 4.223999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.79, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.52, "jev_depth": 1.74, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.223999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1909913381936738503", "text": "刚跟传统二级的朋友聊到一个话题，我觉得挺有意思的，分享出来。\n\n1. 为什么每次到加税或加息的时候，美股反应最快，而crypto资产反倒是呈现滞后性的？\n2. 但流动性变差的时候，尤其是逃顶的时候，crypto资产又是通常抢跑美股的？\n\n这两件事其实是跟交易者行为相关的。", "date": "2025-04-09 10:16:49", "date_only": "2025-04-09", "timestamp": 1744193809.0, "likes": 621, "retweets": 108, "replies": 53, "views": 326155, "isReply": false, "text_len": 136, "curation_score": 880, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1909913381936738503", "substance_score": 4.651, "jev_is_substantive": 0.77, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.73, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.651, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1986153480722259985", "text": "币安这次giggle的操盘真的太屌了，今天想明白了为什么要第一个上Giggle现货了，Giggle控筹最松，没有唯一庄，是市场合力推上去的（这也是为什么三个里面Giggle市值是最低的一个）\n\n上了现货散户乖乖浇出手里的筹码，币安在二级收筹换庄，然后一鼓作气做成一个长期的meme，经过了TST Mubarak", "date": "2025-11-05 19:27:45", "date_only": "2025-11-05", "timestamp": 1762370865.0, "likes": 329, "retweets": 31, "replies": 81, "views": 137261, "isReply": false, "text_len": 155, "curation_score": 728.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1986153480722259985", "substance_score": 4.399, "jev_is_substantive": 0.64, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.84, "jev_depth": 1.73, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.399, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1881590202357125249", "text": "Freya是这波AI被疯狂吸血后我抄的最狠的AI标的，今天看了一眼，涨幅榜最高的就是它，已经快拉回前高了，我解释下抄Freya的逻辑：\n\n1. 这波Trump吸血AI，整个Base生态就Freya这个币跌的最少，明显的强庄强控筹\n2. 感觉市场是没有price in Freya是做什么的，大部分人还以为就是另一个AI", "date": "2025-01-21 06:30:37", "date_only": "2025-01-21", "timestamp": 1737441037.0, "likes": 209, "retweets": 51, "replies": 76, "views": 262545, "isReply": false, "text_len": 159, "curation_score": 833.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1881590202357125249", "substance_score": 4.699, "jev_is_substantive": 0.79, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.73, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.699, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1922128639090376907", "text": "@draachen 还是要上的，玩cex的用户和dex的不是一个数量级的，出货能出的量差的很远", "date": "2025-05-13 03:15:53", "date_only": "2025-05-13", "timestamp": 1747106153.0, "likes": 1, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 505, "isReply": true, "text_len": 47, "curation_score": -27.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1922128639090376907", "substance_score": 4.044999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.7, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.82, "jev_depth": 1.73, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 4.044999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1905843843406405882", "text": "可以从“交易者”的视角换成“收割者”的视角，复盘一下前两天mubarak、banana、tut和broccoli上线bn，如果你是“庄”的交易员，要盈利最大化，你在那一刻会如何操作呢？\n\n消息出来，如果我是庄，我会有几个基础判断：\n1. 通知上bn现货的那一刻就是流动性最充足的时候，要出货一定这个时候出，后续没机会了。", "date": "2025-03-29 04:45:55", "date_only": "2025-03-29", "timestamp": 1743223555.0, "likes": 339, "retweets": 54, "replies": 61, "views": 108042, "isReply": false, "text_len": 160, "curation_score": 842.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1905843843406405882", "substance_score": 4.948, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.64, "jev_depth": 1.72, "jev_has_rule": 0.26, "quality_score": 4.948, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1982473495318859883", "text": "最近二级建了不少Holo的仓位，今天跟 @0xcryptowizard 和 @allen_su1024 闲聊，恰好大家都在这几天建了仓😂，聊聊逻辑：\n- 关注二级比较多的朋友应该注意到这几天二级资金已经在炒AI第二春了，可以看下Virtual和AIXBT，连ACT都拉盘了。二级的启动信号挺明显的。\n\n-", "date": "2025-10-26 15:44:48", "date_only": "2025-10-26", "timestamp": 1761493488.0, "likes": 116, "retweets": 10, "replies": 35, "views": 40238, "isReply": false, "text_len": 152, "curation_score": 404.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1982473495318859883", "substance_score": 4.256, "jev_is_substantive": 0.69, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.72, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.256, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2012009313116750011", "text": "这就是为什么现在没人玩山寨。山寨币只能做两波确定性机会，1. 开盘跟空投合力向下空，2. 上了alpha赌项目方需要维护价格上币安合约和现货，谁当holder谁傻逼。", "date": "2026-01-16 03:49:36", "date_only": "2026-01-16", "timestamp": 1768535376.0, "likes": 84, "retweets": 9, "replies": 24, "views": 37163, "isReply": false, "text_len": 83, "curation_score": 437.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2012009313116750011", "substance_score": 4.788, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.72, "jev_has_rule": 0.28, "quality_score": 4.788, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2061692060626030642", "text": "@CryptoPandasim 我到不太会这个位置去做空mstr，短期还是会跟着btc走，周期底部时也通常比btc更早见底", "date": "2026-06-02 06:11:06", "date_only": "2026-06-02", "timestamp": 1780380666.0, "likes": 4, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 2347, "isReply": true, "text_len": 61, "curation_score": 40.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2061692060626030642", "substance_score": 4.368, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.34, "jev_depth": 1.72, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.368, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1960181362918592541", "text": "wlfi后续的博弈空间我觉得还是不小的，分享一些我的思路。\n- wlfi最低垂的果实是取代掉fdusd的地位，bn强推usd1的意图在几个月前就很明显了。\n- 美国6月份通过的“Genius", "date": "2025-08-26 03:23:49", "date_only": "2025-08-26", "timestamp": 1756178629.0, "likes": 235, "retweets": 42, "replies": 58, "views": 165544, "isReply": false, "text_len": 95, "curation_score": 731.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1960181362918592541", "substance_score": 4.697, "jev_is_substantive": 0.8, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.65, "jev_depth": 1.71, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.697, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2037822515788267668", "text": "喜欢交易A类的图，跟着大盘走，反弹比大盘弱，控筹看起来差，可以空。B和C主动痕迹太重，薛定谔的操盘，你开多仓位大点就跌，你开空仓位大点就拉。\n\n现在看到有明显主动做市痕迹的标的都会拉黑，合约庄爱玩你自己玩去吧。", "date": "2026-03-28 09:22:03", "date_only": "2026-03-28", "timestamp": 1774689723.0, "likes": 65, "retweets": 2, "replies": 23, "views": 20040, "isReply": false, "text_len": 105, "curation_score": 278.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2037822515788267668", "substance_score": 4.651, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.94, "jev_depth": 1.71, "jev_has_rule": 0.26, "quality_score": 4.651, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1920859791158661217", "text": "之前复盘过，Holo操盘Ava那波操盘的实在有点牛逼，这个新的预售准备打一些，不过因为没有硬顶，会等截止前看打了多少sol，算下隐含市值合适不合适再打", "date": "2025-05-09 15:13:56", "date_only": "2025-05-09", "timestamp": 1746803636.0, "likes": 51, "retweets": 9, "replies": 40, "views": 44567, "isReply": false, "text_len": 75, "curation_score": 257.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1920859791158661217", "substance_score": 4.247999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.72, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.66, "jev_depth": 1.7, "jev_has_rule": 0.15, "quality_score": 4.247999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1916134260215550050", "text": "@0xDave852 1. 得有监管主体，crypto这块儿不透明，比如这种妖币是该sec来管还是证监会管\n2. 不一定。控筹紧意味着拉盘成本更低，肯定越高越好，90%以上算比较高了\n3. 没太理解这个问题。定价是想说给funding rate做资产化嘛？ena类似的逻辑？", "date": "2025-04-26 14:16:22", "date_only": "2025-04-26", "timestamp": 1745676982.0, "likes": 6, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 11732, "isReply": true, "text_len": 137, "curation_score": 117.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1916134260215550050", "substance_score": 4.1339999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.77, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.93, "jev_depth": 1.7, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.1339999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2098686554617340327", "text": "这两天有几个朋友跟我说，build的庄又在放要攒新盘的消息了，说有资源上alpha和合约。这段时间stock meme热度高，肯定会有很多dev想趁着币安的上币窗口搞一个合约盘子出来。\n\n但能明显感觉到，最近币安的上币策略还是非常尊重市场和热度的，包括上pons和amc这些robinhood的币，好事是在现在这个市场，纯阴谋盘在bsc已经基本跑不出来了。 IQ test", "date": "2026-09-12 08:14:00", "date_only": "2026-09-12", "timestamp": 1789200840.0, "likes": 0, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 0, "isReply": false, "text_len": 187, "curation_score": 175.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2098686554617340327", "substance_score": 3.9859999999999998, "jev_is_substantive": 0.71, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.77, "jev_depth": 1.7, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.9859999999999998, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2087306430064025913", "text": "最近大家都在抱怨btc没波动，太难做了。\n\n信我，这其实是一个很好的底部信号，过去两轮周期底的时候比现在波动还要小，行情更干。现在是要慢慢埋伏长线现货单的时候，就别盯着这点波动去频繁交易了，如果你现在一直波，几乎一定会在周期反转启动的第一根针卖飞，浪费了宝贵的四年一次的底部建仓机会。", "date": "2026-08-11 22:33:27", "date_only": "2026-08-11", "timestamp": 1786487607.0, "likes": 285, "retweets": 37, "replies": 123, "views": 71695, "isReply": false, "text_len": 142, "curation_score": 674.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2087306430064025913", "substance_score": 4.912, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.51, "jev_depth": 1.68, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 4.912, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1831060597213168044", "text": "上午刚拿DOGS作为例子解释做市商是如何通过合约出货的，下午就收到了几条阴阳怪气的私信，大致逻辑是：DOGS流量大、全流通、这么多交易所庄实力雄厚、庄没必要这个位置出货，看的我实在是哭笑不得。我想分享一下交易山寨币你该有的最基础的\"规则\"，可以大致归纳为5条“自问”，这5条全是真金白银交过学费", "date": "2024-09-03 20:04:00", "date_only": "2024-09-03", "timestamp": 1725393840.0, "likes": 285, "retweets": 44, "replies": 48, "views": 93708, "isReply": false, "text_len": 147, "curation_score": 799.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1831060597213168044", "substance_score": 4.816, "jev_is_substantive": 0.85, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.73, "jev_depth": 1.68, "jev_has_rule": 0.12, "quality_score": 4.816, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1919967602241307123", "text": "分享点alpha，目前的二级游戏版本有两个不错盈亏比的策略，第一是alpha首发等空投的浇给一波，然后在链上买，博一波项目方拉盘上合约或现货，这里散户是跟庄有向上合力的。第二个就是上了币安或upbit现货之后找机会空，你也是跟庄有向下合力的。", "date": "2025-05-07 04:08:42", "date_only": "2025-05-07", "timestamp": 1746590922.0, "likes": 190, "retweets": 32, "replies": 25, "views": 54942, "isReply": false, "text_len": 121, "curation_score": 625.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1919967602241307123", "substance_score": 4.9, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.68, "jev_has_rule": 0.15, "quality_score": 4.9, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1961338424922906644", "text": "Block真得多关注关注，这两天先建了10wu的底仓，如果给回调会加仓，分享下逻辑：\n- wlfi要做生态给usd1找应用场景，生态里有一大堆干儿子币，但只有俩个币是wlfi团队自己下场做的亲儿子币，一个是wlfi CTO做的dolo（做defi的，已经上bn现货了），另一个是wlfi", "date": "2025-08-29 08:01:35", "date_only": "2025-08-29", "timestamp": 1756454495.0, "likes": 117, "retweets": 23, "replies": 25, "views": 60620, "isReply": false, "text_len": 143, "curation_score": 470.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1961338424922906644", "substance_score": 4.454, "jev_is_substantive": 0.74, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.68, "jev_has_rule": 0.16, "quality_score": 4.454, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1954105953089183851", "text": "Gen call完4倍了，我本都还没出，一直拿着的逻辑也很简单，了解背后有几个VC在抱团买，以我的了解，链上那点钱这种庄看不上也收割不出来，先看100m，二级见。 https://t.co/uV8VWc2euF", "date": "2025-08-09 09:02:19", "date_only": "2025-08-09", "timestamp": 1754730139.0, "likes": 54, "retweets": 5, "replies": 20, "views": 34720, "isReply": false, "text_len": 105, "curation_score": 285.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1954105953089183851_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1954105953089183851", "substance_score": 4.816999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.74, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.6, "jev_depth": 1.67, "jev_has_rule": 0.13, "quality_score": 4.816999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1923781244548153434", "text": "@crypto_biubiu 我觉得可能的问题：\n1. 仓位是不是有点过重了，这市场不缺机会，没必要一笔交易这么重仓，杠杆拉的容错空间也小\n2. 看alpaca和tst这两笔大的操作，是不是可以换个思路，考虑去没这么拥挤的地方捞钱", "date": "2025-05-17 16:42:45", "date_only": "2025-05-17", "timestamp": 1747500165.0, "likes": 33, "retweets": 1, "replies": 2, "views": 6739, "isReply": true, "text_len": 115, "curation_score": 151.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1923781244548153434", "substance_score": 4.255, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.67, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.255, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1896478736612303250", "text": "最近链上机会少，很多人开始玩二级了，还是想提醒下，如果你没有自己的交易系统，只去跟单或者拍脑袋决策，二级和合约的难度比链上大多了。推荐三个我的二级宝藏信息源，都是国外博主，着重关注他们的youtube长视频，都是授人以渔为主，就算给鱼也会把完整的逻辑讲的很清晰的交易员（我每天至少会花半 https://t.co/KiEfLQUne7", "date": "2025-03-03 08:32:20", "date_only": "2025-03-03", "timestamp": 1740990740.0, "likes": 1081, "retweets": 259, "replies": 101, "views": 231419, "isReply": false, "text_len": 167, "curation_score": 835, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1896478736612303250_0.jpg", "images/1896478736612303250_1.jpg", "images/1896478736612303250_2.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1896478736612303250", "substance_score": 5.254, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.96, "jev_depth": 1.66, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 5.254, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2083922287343149442", "text": "半年时间，hyperliquid上75%的交易量已经是RWA资产了（美股、贵金属、原油），我估计这个趋势在其他cex上也差不多。\n\n我估计这个数字这轮周期应该会去90%以上，而增量全部来源于吸血传统券商的用户。\n\n很多人可能还没理解，光是能24/7小时交易这一件事对比还在用传统券商的交易者是多么大的相对优势。", "date": "2026-08-02 14:26:05", "date_only": "2026-08-02", "timestamp": 1785680765.0, "likes": 171, "retweets": 22, "replies": 47, "views": 54339, "isReply": false, "text_len": 155, "curation_score": 566.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2083922287343149442", "substance_score": 4.696, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.55, "jev_depth": 1.66, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.696, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2052362228498915663", "text": "这波lab如果结束了，你的选择不该是去贴地抄底lab，而是去想想前段时间爆拉之后现在横盘洗盘的一些妖币，现在注意力和流动性全都在lab那，庄估计都等着lab结束表演后再启动了。", "date": "2026-05-07 12:17:40", "date_only": "2026-05-07", "timestamp": 1778156260.0, "likes": 79, "retweets": 5, "replies": 65, "views": 23655, "isReply": false, "text_len": 88, "curation_score": 285.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2052362228498915663", "substance_score": 4.468, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.59, "jev_depth": 1.66, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.468, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1961478056985645491", "text": "还是维持之前观点，短期内eth冲前高肯定要往下震一震才能突破，但最后牛尾的疯牛还没来，山寨也才刚启动，珍惜降息前后的每一次回调抄底，一般山寨牛尾的爆拉错过了就错过了，想追都没法追。\n\n就一条逻辑：难道Eth庄拉个前高就是让大家解个套就结束吗？\n\nHigher https://t.co/m53JOKZ8ln", "date": "2025-08-29 17:16:25", "date_only": "2025-08-29", "timestamp": 1756487785.0, "likes": 123, "retweets": 13, "replies": 32, "views": 54574, "isReply": false, "text_len": 153, "curation_score": 497.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1961478056985645491_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1961478056985645491", "substance_score": 5.316999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.94, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.44, "jev_depth": 1.65, "jev_has_rule": 0.08, "quality_score": 5.316999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2082858749400846429", "text": "要么找非共识的时间，要么找非共识的标的，这俩都共识的时候，你一定是进去送钱的。\n\n刚做账号的时候对公众的嘘声还很在意，后来经过几次meme币的事情也想明白了，在交易这件事上公众声音几乎都是没有价值的噪音，往往赚钱最多的机会都是最具有争议性的，都认同你了，你赚的是谁的钱呢。", "date": "2026-07-30 15:59:58", "date_only": "2026-07-30", "timestamp": 1785427198.0, "likes": 358, "retweets": 37, "replies": 95, "views": 70039, "isReply": false, "text_len": 136, "curation_score": 656.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2082858749400846429", "substance_score": 4.765, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.52, "jev_depth": 1.63, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.765, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2034575005355499871", "text": "这是币安系山寨的通病，比如form、aster都是这样，当一个代币的操盘行为不是价值发现逻辑，而是最大化割对手盘的逻辑，只要我看到一次就永远不会再碰这个币了，因为这个币完全缺失交易逻辑了（币跟业务无关、跟利好利空无关），买这种币跟玩杀猪盘有什么区别？", "date": "2026-03-19 10:17:36", "date_only": "2026-03-19", "timestamp": 1773915456.0, "likes": 111, "retweets": 5, "replies": 23, "views": 38499, "isReply": false, "text_len": 125, "curation_score": 378.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2034575005355499871", "substance_score": 4.515, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.79, "jev_depth": 1.63, "jev_has_rule": 0.11, "quality_score": 4.515, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1836710141204250670", "text": "@memetodamars 之前有个美股trader的朋友跟我说过一个FOMC时候美股的规律，只要不是加息前期fed chair极度鹰派吓市场控制expectation。在降息周期里，通常在Fed chair讲话期间安慰市场的时候都要拉，讲完话没多久就会又回去。", "date": "2024-09-19 10:13:16", "date_only": "2024-09-19", "timestamp": 1726740796.0, "likes": 8, "retweets": 1, "replies": 1, "views": 1709, "isReply": true, "text_len": 131, "curation_score": 88.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1836710141204250670", "substance_score": 4.212999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.63, "jev_has_rule": 0.11, "quality_score": 4.212999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2082070220471152679", "text": "crypto这轮的几个创新赛道的数据都跑的非常非常好，perp dex、预测市场、RWA代币化、稳定币，量全在新高，这还是在熊市周期，行情真的只差btc吹口进攻哨，快了，应该就在这两三个月了。", "date": "2026-07-28 11:46:38", "date_only": "2026-07-28", "timestamp": 1785239198.0, "likes": 280, "retweets": 32, "replies": 79, "views": 84882, "isReply": false, "text_len": 96, "curation_score": 700.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2082070220471152679", "substance_score": 4.646, "jev_is_substantive": 0.85, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.3, "jev_depth": 1.62, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.646, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1983936890765242540", "text": "aster这个盘面看着不太对劲，前面空投都发了，还在做buyback，怎么tm砸成跌幅榜了，不会跟form用的一个做市商吧，又给我打损了。最近要切换思维了，都tm拿利好砸盘（比如看看今天上robinhood的sei，明显的畜生操盘法）以后多头不再投研项目了，只看K线，空头只看控筹。 https://t.co/Hs8J10Apu0", "date": "2025-10-30 16:39:49", "date_only": "2025-10-30", "timestamp": 1761842389.0, "likes": 116, "retweets": 4, "replies": 72, "views": 131588, "isReply": false, "text_len": 165, "curation_score": 476.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1983936890765242540_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1983936890765242540", "substance_score": 5.002000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.81, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.62, "jev_has_rule": 0.13, "quality_score": 5.002000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1990816797981815004", "text": "@yuyue_chris 对，主流币低倍空，小币找那些已知派发完筹码，业务也是垃圾的，做逐仓和设置好止损空。", "date": "2025-11-18 16:18:06", "date_only": "2025-11-18", "timestamp": 1763482686.0, "likes": 18, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 2949, "isReply": true, "text_len": 54, "curation_score": 17.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1990816797981815004", "substance_score": 4.73, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.62, "jev_has_rule": 0.58, "quality_score": 4.73, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2088217251224977561", "text": "非要做空也可以，得有逻辑，逻辑没实现就止损，很多标的空单长拿真的能套一辈子。", "date": "2026-08-14 10:52:44", "date_only": "2026-08-14", "timestamp": 1786704764.0, "likes": 8, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 5085, "isReply": true, "text_len": 38, "curation_score": 37.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2088217251224977561", "substance_score": 4.566000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.9, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.62, "jev_has_rule": 0.4, "quality_score": 4.566000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1923784607780200832", "text": "其实玩合约亏大钱的就两种：\n1. 错了不认，一条路走到黑\n2. 杠杆拉太高了，可能方向看对了，但一点容错空间不给自己留\n\n看看推上亏大钱的，都是这两种，这两件事本身就是反人性的，得通过规则来限制", "date": "2025-05-17 16:56:07", "date_only": "2025-05-17", "timestamp": 1747500967.0, "likes": 234, "retweets": 27, "replies": 54, "views": 46455, "isReply": false, "text_len": 97, "curation_score": 638.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1923784607780200832", "substance_score": 4.735, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.61, "jev_has_rule": 0.1, "quality_score": 4.735, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1935213971583500651", "text": "除了做市商、交易所、还有KOL、Marketing Agency、撸空投的、撸alpha的、还有待解锁的VC。每个人在这场游戏里都在尝试“无风险套利”做价值抽取者，那自然能“稳住盘面”就不取决于单一一方的意愿，最终都会成为互相pvp抢跑的游戏。", "date": "2025-06-18 05:52:20", "date_only": "2025-06-18", "timestamp": 1750225940.0, "likes": 36, "retweets": 2, "replies": 2, "views": 6940, "isReply": true, "text_len": 122, "curation_score": 98.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1935213971583500651", "substance_score": 4.071, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.5, "jev_depth": 1.61, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.071, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1872627073585668161", "text": "有没有发现一个很有趣的现象，AI从一开始GOAT这样的纯meme，发展到了能聊天的AI Agent的，又发展到ai16z这样的链上基金，然后到Virtual、Spore这样的新型资产发型平台，每一步都在离应用越来越近，而这一切发生在两个月时间内。", "date": "2024-12-27 12:54:20", "date_only": "2024-12-27", "timestamp": 1735304060.0, "likes": 426, "retweets": 100, "replies": 97, "views": 210244, "isReply": false, "text_len": 123, "curation_score": 805, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1872627073585668161", "substance_score": 4.016, "jev_is_substantive": 0.55, "jev_domain": "onchain_flow", "jev_confidence": 0.23, "jev_depth": 1.6, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.016, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1888150095969079681", "text": "最近有几个想做launchpad的朋友问我有啥创业想法，我觉得想做launchpad的就揪着pumpfun没解决的需求打就完了。\n\n随便举个pump fun明显没有解决的痛点：流水盘dev，这个事情跟其他行业的任何人说都会认为这本质上就是诈骗，链上用户也已经苦rug dev和流水盘久已。", "date": "2025-02-08 08:57:17", "date_only": "2025-02-08", "timestamp": 1739005037.0, "likes": 148, "retweets": 15, "replies": 61, "views": 108769, "isReply": false, "text_len": 144, "curation_score": 557.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1888150095969079681", "substance_score": 3.9720000000000004, "jev_is_substantive": 0.6, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.6, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.9720000000000004, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1843467957541974523", "text": "昨天把晒的如何给群友按头冲moodeng的帖子删了，不想刻意给大家制造焦虑。今天把答应大家的帖子给补了，讲一讲为什么在昨天vitalik卖币的时候，我会如此笃定eth的moodeng一定会起飞，本文不短，请大家耐心阅读。Eth Moodeng有“明确逻辑”的买点其实一共有三个：\n\n1. 第一买点：Sol的moodeng https://t.co/AOa4ywZIap", "date": "2024-10-08 01:46:25", "date_only": "2024-10-08", "timestamp": 1728351985.0, "likes": 618, "retweets": 156, "replies": 141, "views": 143345, "isReply": false, "text_len": 184, "curation_score": 920, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1843467957541974523_0.jpg", "images/1843467957541974523_1.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1843467957541974523", "substance_score": 5.049, "jev_is_substantive": 0.75, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.61, "jev_depth": 1.59, "jev_has_rule": 0.08, "quality_score": 5.049, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2090694412540272899", "text": "贵金属看至少5年的大熊市的观点还是没变，准备等黄金和白银再拉一拉吧，然后空进去，72-75这个位置看看阻力反应，下次的局部底应该就是4开头的了。\n\n今年上半年最大的收益来源就是空白银了。 https://t.co/t5mWgB5Z6s", "date": "2026-08-21 06:56:05", "date_only": "2026-08-21", "timestamp": 1787295365.0, "likes": 152, "retweets": 12, "replies": 329, "views": 50877, "isReply": false, "text_len": 117, "curation_score": 470.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2090694412540272899_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2090694412540272899", "substance_score": 5.382000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.58, "jev_has_rule": 0.25, "quality_score": 5.382000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2088147316033433769", "text": "其实我觉得最简单的一个逻辑，多少资金会去想：能买AI大模型的公司了，为什么不投大模型，去买产业链的股票？\n\n就像是你只有看好苹果了，才会去看苹果产业链里有什么机会。", "date": "2026-08-14 06:14:50", "date_only": "2026-08-14", "timestamp": 1786688090.0, "likes": 14, "retweets": 1, "replies": 2, "views": 73048, "isReply": true, "text_len": 82, "curation_score": 195.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2088147316033433769", "substance_score": 3.978, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.58, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.978, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1921561767404089812", "text": "之前说过，最近bn的上币玩法，上了Alpha不出货，还能往上猛冲的，基本都是庄砸钱奔着现货去拉的，Defi+AI这么热的赛道，币安大概率会挑个上，Anon是龙头，想不到还能上谁了，拿着等着上现货了。 https://t.co/kcLytMMPGY", "date": "2025-05-11 13:43:20", "date_only": "2025-05-11", "timestamp": 1746971000.0, "likes": 65, "retweets": 2, "replies": 22, "views": 113228, "isReply": false, "text_len": 123, "curation_score": 408.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1921561767404089812_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1921561767404089812", "substance_score": 4.776999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.57, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.776999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2034602213755257208", "text": "我认为MSTR一定会爆雷，也许不是这轮周期，也许不是下轮或是下下轮，但最终一定会爆雷，因为这是所有资金盘的逻辑必然。\n\n关键问题：“屯BTC这样的无息资产如何支付每年11.5%的利息？”", "date": "2026-03-19 12:05:43", "date_only": "2026-03-19", "timestamp": 1773921943.0, "likes": 423, "retweets": 47, "replies": 169, "views": 395840, "isReply": false, "text_len": 93, "curation_score": 851.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2034602213755257208", "substance_score": 4.236, "jev_is_substantive": 0.69, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.38, "jev_depth": 1.56, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.236, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2019607123831976153", "text": "提醒小伙伴们一下，如果你之前没跑现在深深套牢，割肉割不下去，也没更多钱补仓，你大概率后面会想要币本位继续抄底开多。往前一步是深渊，这事绝对不能干，只要你btc现货拿住，删掉交易所账户，过两年会回本的，但如果你熊市开始用币本位抄底了，就彻底没救了。", "date": "2026-02-06 03:00:35", "date_only": "2026-02-06", "timestamp": 1770346835.0, "likes": 308, "retweets": 15, "replies": 75, "views": 89838, "isReply": false, "text_len": 123, "curation_score": 629.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2019607123831976153", "substance_score": 4.98, "jev_is_substantive": 0.91, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.56, "jev_has_rule": 0.4, "quality_score": 4.98, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1997872079107203426", "text": "这两天有几个小伙伴被画门行情插麻了，还是建议大家多读几遍这篇“熊市生存指南”，我能想到的过去熊市踩过的每个大坑都在这里，句句真切。\n\n熊市多想想你的策略在赚谁的钱，是否是正EV的，是否是相对确定的。\n\n如果你想不明白这个问题，却还一直继续做，那你一定熬不过去。 https://t.co/hGTmbsZmTT", "date": "2025-12-08 03:33:16", "date_only": "2025-12-08", "timestamp": 1765164796.0, "likes": 160, "retweets": 10, "replies": 40, "views": 66575, "isReply": false, "text_len": 154, "curation_score": 493.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1997872079107203426_0.jpg", "images/1997872079107203426_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1997872079107203426", "substance_score": 5.1, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.56, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 5.1, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2087904591405080779", "text": "我觉得像$NBIS和$CRWV这些neocloud公司本质上就是数据中心的杠杆play，就像是上轮的$MSTR就是btc的杠杆play一样。", "date": "2026-08-13 14:10:20", "date_only": "2026-08-13", "timestamp": 1786630220.0, "likes": 75, "retweets": 5, "replies": 86, "views": 26511, "isReply": false, "text_len": 70, "curation_score": 260.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2087904591405080779", "substance_score": 4.046, "jev_is_substantive": 0.76, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.56, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.046, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1999869171992322244", "text": "eth 4250 btc 116000，过不去都是大周期趋势的lower high。\n\n“Trend is your friend until the end of trend”", "date": "2025-12-13 15:49:01", "date_only": "2025-12-13", "timestamp": 1765640941.0, "likes": 31, "retweets": 0, "replies": 4, "views": 11272, "isReply": true, "text_len": 89, "curation_score": 124.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1999869171992322244", "substance_score": 4.163, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.33, "jev_depth": 1.55, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 4.163, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2080224836333535396", "text": "@allincrypto2011 每轮牛市的主线都是熊市酝酿的在牛市被发扬光大的。14年的ICO、18年的defi+nft、22年的btc etf和meme", "date": "2026-07-23 09:33:44", "date_only": "2026-07-23", "timestamp": 1784799224.0, "likes": 9, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 1650, "isReply": true, "text_len": 78, "curation_score": 16.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2080224836333535396", "substance_score": 4.019, "jev_is_substantive": 0.83, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.9, "jev_depth": 1.55, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.019, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1834766624773300468", "text": "MagaCat涨了10倍、Cate涨了4倍，这个市场从来不缺机会，但你若想赢，要从充斥噪音的市场里先别人筛出来自己的逻辑，提前入场而不是听别人喊单，等到市场达成充分共识后止盈。哪怕你的逻辑试了以后是错的，也永远比吃下别人喂给你的然后追高强，因为前者会给你正反馈，而后者只会让你觉得pvp真的好难。", "date": "2024-09-14 01:30:26", "date_only": "2024-09-14", "timestamp": 1726277426.0, "likes": 25, "retweets": 2, "replies": 3, "views": 14420, "isReply": false, "text_len": 148, "curation_score": 192.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1834766624773300468", "substance_score": 4.236, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.87, "jev_depth": 1.54, "jev_has_rule": 0.16, "quality_score": 4.236, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1908251687728668772", "text": "@Sweattt01 逻辑不是这样的。稍微回测下就知道，btc跟美股是强关联，并不是避险属性的。", "date": "2025-04-04 20:13:50", "date_only": "2025-04-04", "timestamp": 1743797630.0, "likes": 20, "retweets": 0, "replies": 3, "views": 8895, "isReply": true, "text_len": 48, "curation_score": 62.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1908251687728668772", "substance_score": 3.886, "jev_is_substantive": 0.76, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.55, "jev_depth": 1.54, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.886, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1899408991618527374", "text": "@unsteadySailor 以上几点出现也最多弹一下，就像前段时间的特朗普喊单，喊完市场就浇给。目前市场博弈的主线是recession vs 什么时候放水。", "date": "2025-03-11 10:36:07", "date_only": "2025-03-11", "timestamp": 1741689367.0, "likes": 5, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 2953, "isReply": true, "text_len": 80, "curation_score": -1.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1899408991618527374", "substance_score": 3.964, "jev_is_substantive": 0.81, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.54, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 3.964, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1947730036175605824", "text": "@gold_burger 蜡烛图反映的是基本面和资金的阴谋阳谋的结果，单看蜡烛图有用，去看趋势的强弱，但知道背后的原因会更知道去哪止盈/止损", "date": "2025-07-22 18:46:42", "date_only": "2025-07-22", "timestamp": 1753210002.0, "likes": 7, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 906, "isReply": true, "text_len": 70, "curation_score": -2.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1947730036175605824", "substance_score": 4.045, "jev_is_substantive": 0.84, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.9, "jev_depth": 1.53, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 4.045, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2090385620107706425", "text": "这俩月节奏踩的太好了，6月看AI大顶存储腰斩完美躲过，6月判断crypto大底开始定投btc和eth，7-8月存储单吊闪迪铁底买入两波反弹吃满，crcl 60附近一直在补，目前已经水上。\n\n5月真的被嘲讽麻了，再说有AI没资金会去买crypto了？再说傻逼才会买crcl？来看看crcl 5倍前，你套在山顶的存储单能不能解套🤡", "date": "2026-08-20 10:29:03", "date_only": "2026-08-20", "timestamp": 1787221743.0, "likes": 363, "retweets": 11, "replies": 86, "views": 51895, "isReply": false, "text_len": 163, "curation_score": 586.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2090385620107706425", "substance_score": 4.204000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.68, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.69, "jev_depth": 1.52, "jev_has_rule": 0.08, "quality_score": 4.204000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2095413795955094010", "text": "之前对robinhood股票不怎么感冒，觉得实在太贵了，只上了很小的仓位，这波hood打链上让我看到了Vlad这个创始人有多强，说几个我的观察：\n\n- 基建铺的太快了，一两个月时间完全感受不到跟做了多年的bsc和sol比的差距。\n-", "date": "2026-09-03 07:29:14", "date_only": "2026-09-03", "timestamp": 1788420554.0, "likes": 313, "retweets": 23, "replies": 94, "views": 94062, "isReply": false, "text_len": 116, "curation_score": 662.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2095413795955094010", "substance_score": 3.8640000000000003, "jev_is_substantive": 0.53, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.56, "jev_depth": 1.52, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 3.8640000000000003, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1893920950468378982", "text": "之前不懂合约怎么收割的可以学习下这两天的Ban，现货四两拨千斤，疯狂收割合约的典型案例。\n\n一个币一旦上了合约，其实不需要拉盘才能出货，只要现货控筹紧，合约找一个对手盘够多的方向，就能疯狂提款。", "date": "2025-02-24 07:08:36", "date_only": "2025-02-24", "timestamp": 1740380916.0, "likes": 333, "retweets": 38, "replies": 40, "views": 109477, "isReply": false, "text_len": 97, "curation_score": 719.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1893920950468378982", "substance_score": 4.505, "jev_is_substantive": 0.85, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.51, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 4.505, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1984557755420852364", "text": "做空清单在这里，大家记得收藏下，说个不会亏的策略，空投多的上线空，空投少或者打了时间差的开盘第二天空，止损设前高，这策略你去回顾下过去一年的所有vc币，就没输过。", "date": "2025-11-01 09:46:54", "date_only": "2025-11-01", "timestamp": 1761990414.0, "likes": 467, "retweets": 102, "replies": 50, "views": 98179, "isReply": false, "text_len": 81, "curation_score": 816.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1984557755420852364", "substance_score": 5.1659999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.5, "jev_has_rule": 0.87, "quality_score": 5.1659999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2090101332653044024", "text": "明天应该就能刷到一堆踏空的人开始做空btc了上轮很多没抄到底的人就是这么从2w开始空了一整个周期的。牛初杀的人不比熊初少。\n\n嗯，我第一轮crypto周期也被这么杀过。", "date": "2026-08-19 15:39:24", "date_only": "2026-08-19", "timestamp": 1787153964.0, "likes": 300, "retweets": 15, "replies": 90, "views": 88811, "isReply": false, "text_len": 84, "curation_score": 657.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2090101332653044024", "substance_score": 4.094, "jev_is_substantive": 0.66, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.45, "jev_depth": 1.5, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.094, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2063860735181025712", "text": "去年10月清仓之后，11月看到身边很多朋友开始抄底时写了这篇帖子，还有这篇熊市生存手册（大家可以回头看下预言中了几条）。https://t.co/0qyNsVrxvG\n\n到了今天（我认为已经快到熊底阶段了），想分享一个我在前几轮熊底时犯的最大错误：“频繁短线交易并持续保持做空思维”", "date": "2026-06-08 05:48:38", "date_only": "2026-06-08", "timestamp": 1780897718.0, "likes": 232, "retweets": 24, "replies": 34, "views": 51402, "isReply": false, "text_len": 141, "curation_score": 579.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2063860735181025712", "substance_score": 4.478, "jev_is_substantive": 0.84, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.5, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 4.478, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1895370593606009297", "text": "推上很多人已经爆仓了，而恐怖的是BTC真正开跌才只有1周时间，管住自己的手啊，更别贷款，这波下跌我觉得最理想的结局就是进入一个三个月到半年的小熊市，然后放水期来了之后再来一波。 https://t.co/EzvCljZUPl", "date": "2025-02-28 07:08:58", "date_only": "2025-02-28", "timestamp": 1740726538.0, "likes": 214, "retweets": 9, "replies": 73, "views": 125012, "isReply": false, "text_len": 112, "curation_score": 647.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1895370593606009297_0.png", "images/1895370593606009297_1.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1895370593606009297", "substance_score": 5.166, "jev_is_substantive": 0.89, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.79, "jev_depth": 1.5, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 5.166, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2072025693563830741", "text": "扫了一下时间线，发现都在担心circle，并没几个人意识到stripe，visa，mastercard，blackrock，coinbase一起下场做稳定币，对usdt和usdc和整个加密赛道都是个具大的利好。\n\n传统金融机构们做了个联盟币全面拥抱稳定币，你跟我说usdt和usdc要被取代了，纽交所做bakkt，blackrock做btc", "date": "2026-06-30 18:33:16", "date_only": "2026-06-30", "timestamp": 1782844396.0, "likes": 189, "retweets": 21, "replies": 55, "views": 103418, "isReply": false, "text_len": 170, "curation_score": 681.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2072025693563830741", "substance_score": 4.305, "jev_is_substantive": 0.8, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.45, "jev_depth": 1.49, "jev_has_rule": 0.01, "quality_score": 4.305, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1894593303263547645", "text": "下个阶段，会有很多人开始玩合约想要回本，先从低倍杠杆开始，直到杠杆拉满爆仓出局，最后走上借贷的路。请你管住自己的手，先把心态整理好，没行情就耐心等待，拿时间去陪陪爸妈，或者找找工作学学英文也行，机会是等出来的，不是拉杠杆赌出来的。", "date": "2025-02-26 03:40:17", "date_only": "2025-02-26", "timestamp": 1740541217.0, "likes": 368, "retweets": 23, "replies": 61, "views": 105784, "isReply": false, "text_len": 115, "curation_score": 704.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1894593303263547645", "substance_score": 4.404, "jev_is_substantive": 0.81, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.48, "jev_has_rule": 0.08, "quality_score": 4.404, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2093218524206690425", "text": "昨天被我哥安利了All-in-Podcast这个播客，他说每一期都会第一时间看。确实都是跟科技核心圈的insider们非常高质量的对话，比如Anthropic这一期，看完大概对AI大模型的投资人预期/顾虑/竞争/估值/增长就有一个比较全面的了解了，全英文长内容，信息量很大，不算好消化，但非常推荐。", "date": "2026-08-28 06:06:00", "date_only": "2026-08-28", "timestamp": 1787897160.0, "likes": 273, "retweets": 35, "replies": 62, "views": 68604, "isReply": false, "text_len": 149, "curation_score": 632.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2093218524206690425", "substance_score": 3.368, "jev_is_substantive": 0.32, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 0.9, "jev_depth": 1.48, "jev_has_rule": 0.01, "quality_score": 3.368, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1959178886174130489", "text": "给自己多一些容错率，不要上杠杆，大牛市现货的倍数已经很恐怖了，也珍惜降息前后的每一次抄底机会", "date": "2025-08-23 09:00:20", "date_only": "2025-08-23", "timestamp": 1755939620.0, "likes": 86, "retweets": 2, "replies": 8, "views": 19129, "isReply": true, "text_len": 46, "curation_score": 173.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1959178886174130489", "substance_score": 4.3839999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.93, "jev_depth": 1.48, "jev_has_rule": 0.18, "quality_score": 4.3839999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1894386415972356453", "text": "在香港consensus参会给我的感觉还是准的，市场还是太乐观了，几乎所有人都觉得只是阶段性回调，但这两天很多人开始问：是不是这轮牛市就这么结束了？\n\n我的观点还是放水后会有一波大的山寨上涨行情，但短中期内需要来波大清算了，美股和币圈都是。", "date": "2025-02-25 13:58:12", "date_only": "2025-02-25", "timestamp": 1740491892.0, "likes": 138, "retweets": 13, "replies": 30, "views": 112601, "isReply": false, "text_len": 120, "curation_score": 566.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1894386415972356453", "substance_score": 4.397, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.75, "jev_depth": 1.47, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.397, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2058113257467215887", "text": "观点没变，BES看新低，BTC至少摸个前低。熊市少动，没跌到让你很“眼馋”的价格就不要买，7-8w显然不是那个眼馋的价格，多看看别的市场咯，盈亏比和交易逻辑比现在的币圈好太多了。", "date": "2026-05-23 09:10:13", "date_only": "2026-05-23", "timestamp": 1779527413.0, "likes": 126, "retweets": 13, "replies": 19, "views": 31243, "isReply": false, "text_len": 89, "curation_score": 410.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2058113257467215887", "substance_score": 4.529000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.93, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.86, "jev_depth": 1.47, "jev_has_rule": 0.2, "quality_score": 4.529000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1869599256644038948", "text": "绝大部分币上了币安就是终点，团队的格局和社区的共识都写在脸上。二级的散户玩交易所新币，技术分析是一点用也没有，团队真想倒货套牢你，我都能给你把线画好，更不用说那帮专业tradifi出来的做市商了，到时候你套牢了还得帮人家出货的团队去cx别的散户上车成为退出流动性。这个圈子不大，我喜欢关注 https://t.co/qPEWwdH9jq", "date": "2024-12-19 04:22:52", "date_only": "2024-12-19", "timestamp": 1734582172.0, "likes": 116, "retweets": 16, "replies": 46, "views": 40411, "isReply": false, "text_len": 168, "curation_score": 392.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1869599256644038948_0.jpg", "images/1869599256644038948_1.jpg", "images/1869599256644038948_2.jpg", "images/1869599256644038948_3.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1869599256644038948", "substance_score": 4.65, "jev_is_substantive": 0.77, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.46, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.65, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2038896701361021365", "text": "现在回看Jeff的这篇看空白银的采访是否就有感觉多了？他对于白银类比山寨的逻辑也是让我去回测白银/黄金汇率对去判断贵金属到顶了的逻辑来源。\n\nJeff是我关注的为数不多的机构投资人，因为绝大部分机构投资人，像老黑arthur，tom lee，cathie", "date": "2026-03-31 08:30:29", "date_only": "2026-03-31", "timestamp": 1774945829.0, "likes": 110, "retweets": 14, "replies": 18, "views": 31084, "isReply": false, "text_len": 127, "curation_score": 404.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2038896701361021365", "substance_score": 3.6899999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.6, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.96, "jev_depth": 1.46, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 3.6899999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1877291851247477155", "text": "@wolfyxbt 完了，本来想充值一波信仰，大家看要这么久反倒看成Fud了.....我这里说的是狂暴山寨季时间的预判，并不是说资金不会流入到山寨，已经进入降息周期了，有点耐心啊，朋友们。。。。", "date": "2025-01-09 09:50:30", "date_only": "2025-01-09", "timestamp": 1736416230.0, "likes": 57, "retweets": 1, "replies": 15, "views": 17371, "isReply": true, "text_len": 97, "curation_score": 178.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1877291851247477155", "substance_score": 3.6620000000000004, "jev_is_substantive": 0.68, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.5, "jev_depth": 1.44, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 3.6620000000000004, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2045928701888696324", "text": "这波aave黑客事件最伤的其实不是aave，是eth，唯一的基本盘defi叙事崩塌了。\n\n这两天跟一位横跨AI和Crypto领域都做过项目的朋友聊天，他的建议是“最近一年都少碰defi，现在正是黑客靠AI去攻破各种defi协议的窗口时间，没人知道到底哪些协议会有漏洞”", "date": "2026-04-19 18:13:08", "date_only": "2026-04-19", "timestamp": 1776622388.0, "likes": 171, "retweets": 14, "replies": 60, "views": 68592, "isReply": false, "text_len": 134, "curation_score": 540.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2045928701888696324", "substance_score": 4.295, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.57, "jev_depth": 1.43, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 4.295, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2029852119747154185", "text": "这轮亏了不少钱买到的教训：\n“熊市炒meme不能做二段，一段掏完情绪的钱，天王老子来shill都不要再买回来了，什么天家局都是韭菜自己的意淫🤡”", "date": "2026-03-06 09:30:32", "date_only": "2026-03-06", "timestamp": 1772789432.0, "likes": 62, "retweets": 5, "replies": 17, "views": 18474, "isReply": false, "text_len": 72, "curation_score": 224.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2029852119747154185", "substance_score": 4.261, "jev_is_substantive": 0.79, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.98, "jev_depth": 1.43, "jev_has_rule": 0.49, "quality_score": 4.261, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2052498195360669854", "text": "很多人无法理解一件事，“在投资和交易中你能赚到的所有钱，本质上都来源于“分歧”，而不是“共识”。”\n\n对与你意见相左的人该有善意，因为他不仅给你带来了其他视角，他同时还是你的利润来源。\n\n你有恶意恰恰说明你也不自信且对这个不确定性非常恐惧。", "date": "2026-05-07 21:17:58", "date_only": "2026-05-07", "timestamp": 1778188678.0, "likes": 258, "retweets": 20, "replies": 64, "views": 23649, "isReply": false, "text_len": 120, "curation_score": 497.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2052498195360669854", "substance_score": 4.366, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.42, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.366, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1904424522620739925", "text": "这轮bsc上的meme浇给这么快，本质是因为大家对meme已经出现“群体性祛魅”了，市场对以下已经达成共识：\n1. 建设 = 涨上去浇给傻逼\n2. 钻石手 = 傻逼\n3. 社区 = 已经买进，想忽悠新人进来浇给\n4. 喊单浇完就下一个", "date": "2025-03-25 06:46:03", "date_only": "2025-03-25", "timestamp": 1742885163.0, "likes": 352, "retweets": 23, "replies": 117, "views": 137875, "isReply": false, "text_len": 117, "curation_score": 734.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1904424522620739925", "substance_score": 4.103, "jev_is_substantive": 0.72, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.41, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 4.103, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2054144501627981904", "text": "真不知道crcl怎么输，踩着AI和RWA两个绝对大趋势，又有稳定币法案推动的利好，又有足够深的护城河，这轮周期相比囤btc和eth我宁愿屯crcl。\n\n看crcl这个周线要突破了，先200见。 https://t.co/kAm9PLDKCD", "date": "2026-05-12 10:19:48", "date_only": "2026-05-12", "timestamp": 1778581188.0, "likes": 240, "retweets": 22, "replies": 38, "views": 123062, "isReply": false, "text_len": 120, "curation_score": 716.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2054144501627981904_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2054144501627981904", "substance_score": 4.9879999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.85, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.4, "jev_has_rule": 0.11, "quality_score": 4.9879999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1835544771588456469", "text": "如果你的仓位里有ETH或者在考虑抄底ETH，我非常建议你把这篇帖子看完，这是我对于以太坊和比特币大周期里仓位配置的思考框架。我发现最近市场上已经没有几个博主在唱多ETH了，大部分已经放弃甚至转黑粉了，而我则认为这个时候反而就是本轮周期抄底ETH的黄金点位，以下是我的逻辑框架和事实数据： https://t.co/mlklndQPP6", "date": "2024-09-16 05:02:30", "date_only": "2024-09-16", "timestamp": 1726462950.0, "likes": 912, "retweets": 210, "replies": 149, "views": 348293, "isReply": false, "text_len": 167, "curation_score": 850, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/1835544771588456469_0.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1835544771588456469", "substance_score": 4.880999999999999, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.47, "jev_depth": 1.39, "jev_has_rule": 0.07, "quality_score": 4.880999999999999, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1919243524920213609", "text": "币圈是个窥探世界真实运作模样的窗口\n\n利益集团把攒局写在脸上，抱团争夺有限的资源与流动性\n\n一切资产皆为ponzi和泡沫，几十年的金融周期在币圈几个月甚至几天就能经历一遍\n\n教育韭菜们努力做builder，资产去做staking，实际成为了泡沫中的燃料\n\n很不幸，但在币圈被收割的人，在圈外也是要被收割的", "date": "2025-05-05 04:11:28", "date_only": "2025-05-05", "timestamp": 1746418288.0, "likes": 255, "retweets": 25, "replies": 61, "views": 51398, "isReply": false, "text_len": 152, "curation_score": 582.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1919243524920213609", "substance_score": 4.181, "jev_is_substantive": 0.79, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.85, "jev_depth": 1.39, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.181, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2091418087212073172", "text": "买入山寨的最好时候是牛市的最后一年到半年，所以如果前几天是周期底，那么就是两年后。", "date": "2026-08-23 06:51:43", "date_only": "2026-08-23", "timestamp": 1787467903.0, "likes": 62, "retweets": 4, "replies": 5, "views": 13640, "isReply": true, "text_len": 41, "curation_score": 132.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2091418087212073172", "substance_score": 4.109, "jev_is_substantive": 0.87, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.34, "jev_depth": 1.39, "jev_has_rule": 0.18, "quality_score": 4.109, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1984982371360448542", "text": "刷推又开始看到骂和道德绑架giggle和币安人生的车头的了，前期被吹捧的有多厉害，在下落的时候就被踩的多狠。真的珍惜点还愿意建设的人吧，市场流动性和注意力是连庄都无法违逆的，更何况一两个车头，builder这活真的，稍微玻璃心一点的人都干不了。为你自己的bag负责，不要亏了就怨他人。", "date": "2025-11-02 13:54:11", "date_only": "2025-11-02", "timestamp": 1762091651.0, "likes": 116, "retweets": 1, "replies": 34, "views": 26088, "isReply": false, "text_len": 142, "curation_score": 334.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1984982371360448542", "substance_score": 3.4270000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.56, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.78, "jev_depth": 1.37, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.4270000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2088137692202864741", "text": "说实话Anthropic vs Spacex这个投票结果还是挺出乎我意料的，我觉得可能是因为Anthropic不让国内用，所以跟中国投资人还是有挺多信息差的。\n\n我个人的观点是，Anthropic 9-10月上市，IPO定价打底1.8-2万亿起，上市当天能冲个2.8-3万亿，超越英伟达的市值只是时间问题，而且并不会很久。 https://t.co/kcmqedfwT6", "date": "2026-08-14 05:36:36", "date_only": "2026-08-14", "timestamp": 1786685796.0, "likes": 88, "retweets": 10, "replies": 70, "views": 72352, "isReply": false, "text_len": 185, "curation_score": 511.7, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2088137692202864741_0.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2088137692202864741", "substance_score": 4.247, "jev_is_substantive": 0.68, "jev_domain": "us_stocks_tech", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.37, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 4.247, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2082368174666977563", "text": "过去一年，存储的大顶，贵金属的大顶，BTC的大顶，ETH的大顶都call到了，不管什么资产，周期顶部都会给相似的顶部信号，逻辑都写在帖子里，希望这几波有救到人，下次喊顶信我一手，别在评论区骂我了。\n\n存储：\nhttps://t.co/5P3fWS34OM\n贵金属：https://t.co/ERIoOgdJu3\nBTC：\nhttps://t.co/WAEsLy3LPD", "date": "2026-07-29 07:30:36", "date_only": "2026-07-29", "timestamp": 1785310236.0, "likes": 532, "retweets": 81, "replies": 106, "views": 108029, "isReply": false, "text_len": 184, "curation_score": 950, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2082368174666977563", "substance_score": 3.5530000000000004, "jev_is_substantive": 0.49, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.91, "jev_depth": 1.35, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 3.5530000000000004, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2041044385379594566", "text": "能第一视角去看一个把策略修到极致的人是怎么赚钱挺难得的，不知那些喷p小将畜生的人看后作何感想，自己能p的过吗？\n\n熊市了更该去有意识的思考一个问题：“那些现在还在场内活跃和赚钱的人，不管是山寨、撸毛、合约、链上、股票，他到底是在靠什么相对优势赚钱？”", "date": "2026-04-06 06:44:36", "date_only": "2026-04-06", "timestamp": 1775457876.0, "likes": 144, "retweets": 14, "replies": 24, "views": 35100, "isReply": false, "text_len": 125, "curation_score": 448.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2041044385379594566", "substance_score": 3.853, "jev_is_substantive": 0.73, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.85, "jev_depth": 1.35, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 3.853, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2062634995970384264", "text": "我看今天有不少人嘲讽@aleabitoreddit喊单btc和加密股（也可能是玩笑为主），怎么说呢，第一次经历熊市是这样的，尤其是在深熊阶段。\n\n我目前的观点是看最低到52000，现在这个价格也有可能是底了，如果你的持仓周期是1-2年，现在这个价格已经可以开始定投。…", "date": "2026-06-04 20:37:59", "date_only": "2026-06-04", "timestamp": 1780605479.0, "likes": 119, "retweets": 9, "replies": 18, "views": 25503, "isReply": false, "text_len": 134, "curation_score": 376.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2062634995970384264", "substance_score": 4.0200000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.41, "jev_depth": 1.34, "jev_has_rule": 0.12, "quality_score": 4.0200000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1940466619043414268", "text": "画师说的这个合约博弈底层逻辑很浅显易懂了，建议玩二级的都理解透，然后带着这样的思维去复盘一下过去二级妖币的操盘方式，很多现象就很特别容易理解了（看妖币是因为相比大币的对手方更单一，现象更明显）。", "date": "2025-07-02 17:44:28", "date_only": "2025-07-02", "timestamp": 1751478268.0, "likes": 172, "retweets": 39, "replies": 27, "views": 58273, "isReply": false, "text_len": 97, "curation_score": 641.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1940466619043414268", "substance_score": 4.079000000000001, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.61, "jev_depth": 1.33, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 4.079000000000001, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1866162732677926963", "text": "大部分人赚不到大钱其实就是因为看不远，角度过于微观短视，甚至盯着眼前那5分钟的蜡烛图。有些是认知不到位，而有些是经济问题的确没办法。看看@Christianeth 为什么能这轮赚a10，其实看一下他在curve的明牌操作就能理解了。创始人都爆仓了他还坚持加仓，其实就两个逻辑，1.", "date": "2024-12-09 16:47:21", "date_only": "2024-12-09", "timestamp": 1733762841.0, "likes": 132, "retweets": 17, "replies": 18, "views": 67151, "isReply": false, "text_len": 140, "curation_score": 578.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1866162732677926963", "substance_score": 3.6550000000000002, "jev_is_substantive": 0.64, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.58, "jev_depth": 1.33, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 3.6550000000000002, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1877956620849950867", "text": "我建议所有新手进来玩，都从纸手开始做起，但你别玩内盘，去玩1-10m明牌有庄的盘子，这样胜率最高，一点点积累本金，等你钱够了，你再去慢慢习惯钻石手的策略。", "date": "2025-01-11 05:52:03", "date_only": "2025-01-11", "timestamp": 1736574723.0, "likes": 109, "retweets": 14, "replies": 13, "views": 24196, "isReply": true, "text_len": 77, "curation_score": 238.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1877956620849950867", "substance_score": 4.069, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "meme_pvp", "jev_confidence": 0.58, "jev_depth": 1.33, "jev_has_rule": 0.2, "quality_score": 4.069, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2010237585449423002", "text": "@HuoYean 变数不是坏事，变数意味着空间大，踏马确定性是因为上了alpha。好的价格和好的逻辑不可能同时出现", "date": "2026-01-11 06:29:23", "date_only": "2026-01-11", "timestamp": 1768112963.0, "likes": 7, "retweets": 0, "replies": 2, "views": 3273, "isReply": true, "text_len": 57, "curation_score": 2.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2010237585449423002", "substance_score": 3.601, "jev_is_substantive": 0.78, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.95, "jev_depth": 1.33, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 3.601, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1839904743994593582", "text": "@Dashuaietf @FLS_OTC 人家现金流好是做长周期策略的基础，不是那个时候看空或者看多观点的原因", "date": "2024-09-28 05:47:29", "date_only": "2024-09-28", "timestamp": 1727502449.0, "likes": 3, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 338, "isReply": true, "text_len": 55, "curation_score": -9.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1839904743994593582", "substance_score": 3.545, "jev_is_substantive": 0.76, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.77, "jev_depth": 1.33, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 3.545, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1878747702009516182", "text": "分享个链上交易小tip，如果是高价开盘的项目，尤其是还有白单的，一般可以先等开盘洗至少两周跌个80%在考虑。这个交易策略背后的逻辑是什么呢？", "date": "2025-01-13 10:15:32", "date_only": "2025-01-13", "timestamp": 1736763332.0, "likes": 129, "retweets": 18, "replies": 32, "views": 32265, "isReply": false, "text_len": 70, "curation_score": 377.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1878747702009516182", "substance_score": 4.734, "jev_is_substantive": 0.92, "jev_domain": "altcoin_trading", "jev_confidence": 0.74, "jev_depth": 1.32, "jev_has_rule": 0.73, "quality_score": 4.734, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2074045302823350497", "text": "@0x_weihang 时间上刻舟问题不大，逃顶的时候拿涨幅幅度和指标刻的全都埋了", "date": "2026-07-06 08:18:28", "date_only": "2026-07-06", "timestamp": 1783325908.0, "likes": 9, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 3921, "isReply": true, "text_len": 41, "curation_score": 6.3, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2074045302823350497", "substance_score": 3.3579999999999997, "jev_is_substantive": 0.64, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.83, "jev_depth": 1.32, "jev_has_rule": 0.1, "quality_score": 3.3579999999999997, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1873572923031912502", "text": "这轮链上的AI红利，本质上拼的是谁能看得懂产品、技术、团队、商业模式、行业趋势等“传统投资”的视角。\n\n把自己想象成一个“天使投资人”，去看产品，技术，愿景。去撩团队跟你聊聊。去solana hackathan的四百多个项目里去筛吧，如果只给你4次押注的机会，你会押注在哪四个项目？", "date": "2024-12-30 03:32:48", "date_only": "2024-12-30", "timestamp": 1735529568.0, "likes": 196, "retweets": 26, "replies": 55, "views": 155810, "isReply": false, "text_len": 141, "curation_score": 662.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1873572923031912502", "substance_score": 3.8569999999999998, "jev_is_substantive": 0.69, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.22, "jev_depth": 1.31, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.8569999999999998, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2017990100748300674", "text": "应该算是这轮比较坚定的明牌喊空的声音之一，9月降息前公开大币仓位清了一半，剩余仓位也在降息落地后都清了，中途也一直在发帖和劝身边的朋友不要抄底，今天聊聊我想什么时候抄底吧。 https://t.co/K7oXK7nB7r", "date": "2026-02-01 15:55:07", "date_only": "2026-02-01", "timestamp": 1769961307.0, "likes": 1089, "retweets": 264, "replies": 103, "views": 532537, "isReply": false, "text_len": 110, "curation_score": 820, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2017990100748300674_0.png", "images/2017990100748300674_1.png", "images/2017990100748300674_2.jpg" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2017990100748300674", "substance_score": 4.626, "jev_is_substantive": 0.74, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.71, "jev_depth": 1.3, "jev_has_rule": 0.12, "quality_score": 4.626, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2094867597053575655", "text": "Crypto现货仓位没上够的，珍惜9月这波博弈加息的回调，75000和73000两个点位，10月和11月是BTC历史上最强的两个月。 https://t.co/pzQP0s9qNr", "date": "2026-09-01 19:18:50", "date_only": "2026-09-01", "timestamp": 1788290330.0, "likes": 327, "retweets": 49, "replies": 91, "views": 154560, "isReply": false, "text_len": 90, "curation_score": 782.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [ "images/2094867597053575655_0.png", "images/2094867597053575655_1.png" ], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2094867597053575655", "substance_score": 4.9079999999999995, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.28, "jev_has_rule": 0.16, "quality_score": 4.9079999999999995, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2091422120639353261", "text": "@ll1748 你能判断这轮行情是牛初的时候，已经到牛中了。交易都是对行情有个大致的偏向性，靠仓位去验证，靠仓位管理去管理风险，最后都是走一步看一步。", "date": "2026-08-23 07:07:44", "date_only": "2026-08-23", "timestamp": 1787468864.0, "likes": 28, "retweets": 2, "replies": 2, "views": 3525, "isReply": true, "text_len": 75, "curation_score": 40.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2091422120639353261", "substance_score": 3.717, "jev_is_substantive": 0.85, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.99, "jev_depth": 1.27, "jev_has_rule": 0.06, "quality_score": 3.717, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2021913805782208590", "text": "@superbitmaneth 不会再做下一个btc或者eth，但本质上不去做100x perp是合规问题，不是能不能做的问题。所以如果crypto一直是小众资金去的地方，没问题的。", "date": "2026-02-12 11:46:31", "date_only": "2026-02-12", "timestamp": 1770896791.0, "likes": 1, "retweets": 0, "replies": 1, "views": 1331, "isReply": true, "text_len": 91, "curation_score": 44.2, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2021913805782208590", "substance_score": 3.399, "jev_is_substantive": 0.73, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.62, "jev_depth": 1.27, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 3.399, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2060083637027246127", "text": "这也是为什么币圈转美股的朋友们最普遍的问题一般都是拿不住（包括我），本质上还是对“产业的增长逻辑和估值逻辑”没有特别深刻的认知。", "date": "2026-05-28 19:39:48", "date_only": "2026-05-28", "timestamp": 1779997188.0, "likes": 64, "retweets": 3, "replies": 109, "views": 15399, "isReply": false, "text_len": 64, "curation_score": 215.8, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2060083637027246127", "substance_score": 3.531, "jev_is_substantive": 0.75, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.74, "jev_depth": 1.25, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.531, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1880223046507897176", "text": "经常有小伙伴问我，自己总是卖飞，怎么才能钻到大收益？其实就是两个事：\n\n一是仓位管理，永远不要买让你不舒服的仓位，问问自己每天是不是看仓位三四十次，恨不得隔5分钟就看一次，如果是这样", "date": "2025-01-17 11:58:01", "date_only": "2025-01-17", "timestamp": 1737115081.0, "likes": 144, "retweets": 20, "replies": 51, "views": 43281, "isReply": false, "text_len": 91, "curation_score": 467.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1880223046507897176", "substance_score": 3.9, "jev_is_substantive": 0.8, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.24, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 3.9, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2060951789026082816", "text": "币圈花了十年建了最好的基建，但交易着最垃圾的资产。单论产品的用户体验，我觉得币安的产品吊打所有券商的。\n\n这波全面转向tradifi资产的rwa业务，让我无比看好crypto平台吃掉传统券商的蛋糕。\n\n这就是币圈这轮周期的主线，一切都刚刚开始。", "date": "2026-05-31 05:09:31", "date_only": "2026-05-31", "timestamp": 1780204171.0, "likes": 207, "retweets": 11, "replies": 23, "views": 61446, "isReply": false, "text_len": 122, "curation_score": 560.9, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2060951789026082816", "substance_score": 3.959, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.47, "jev_depth": 1.23, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.959, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2084891885911577075", "text": "很多人交易了几年还一直亏钱没有长进，因为交易精进是一个需要持续有意识的否认自己的过程，所以它难，而对于越执拗、傲慢、ego越大的人越难，当能意识到自己执拗和傲慢时，就是精进的第一步。\n\n“买的meme起不来，别骂别人，先反思下是不是自己审美不行”", "date": "2026-08-05 06:38:55", "date_only": "2026-08-05", "timestamp": 1785911935.0, "likes": 390, "retweets": 45, "replies": 134, "views": 42811, "isReply": false, "text_len": 123, "curation_score": 625.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2084891885911577075", "substance_score": 3.654, "jev_is_substantive": 0.65, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.8, "jev_depth": 1.22, "jev_has_rule": 0.03, "quality_score": 3.654, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1963886964618514503", "text": "第一次炒股票是在高中那会儿，用着我妈的账户和几百刀，当时把利弗莫尔的“股票大作手回忆录”奉为交易圣经，读了一遍又一遍。\n\n我当然也知道，纪律至上、趋势为王、不要过度交易、行情差的时候不动、情绪失控的时候就该下桌，我也知道他自己最后是怎么死在杠杆上的。", "date": "2025-09-05 08:48:34", "date_only": "2025-09-05", "timestamp": 1757062114.0, "likes": 286, "retweets": 42, "replies": 59, "views": 186286, "isReply": false, "text_len": 125, "curation_score": 716.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1963886964618514503", "substance_score": 3.5340000000000003, "jev_is_substantive": 0.56, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.18, "jev_has_rule": 0.18, "quality_score": 3.5340000000000003, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1881214135255634126", "text": "切记切记不要贪便宜，炒币最差的思维就是：“这个上个月还1个亿，现在才2000w，值得买”", "date": "2025-01-20 05:36:15", "date_only": "2025-01-20", "timestamp": 1737351375.0, "likes": 114, "retweets": 9, "replies": 12, "views": 31979, "isReply": true, "text_len": 44, "curation_score": 232.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1881214135255634126", "substance_score": 3.659, "jev_is_substantive": 0.8, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.97, "jev_depth": 1.17, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 3.659, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2019305162876326395", "text": "@bitfool1 对，不过我觉得熊市时间上的灵活性是站在交易者对立面的，越着急越容易亏", "date": "2026-02-05 07:00:42", "date_only": "2026-02-05", "timestamp": 1770274842.0, "likes": 4, "retweets": 0, "replies": 0, "views": 3203, "isReply": true, "text_len": 44, "curation_score": -17.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2019305162876326395", "substance_score": 3.335, "jev_is_substantive": 0.77, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.17, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 3.335, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2010205460004220978", "text": "前段时间养成了个对我很有意义的习惯\n\n每次最后按下开单键之前\n\n脑子里问自己一句\n\n“这单是逻辑还是情绪？”\n\n在下单前的那一刻，脑子无比清醒", "date": "2026-01-11 04:21:44", "date_only": "2026-01-11", "timestamp": 1768105304.0, "likes": 273, "retweets": 19, "replies": 50, "views": 31254, "isReply": false, "text_len": 71, "curation_score": 484.5, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2010205460004220978", "substance_score": 3.315, "jev_is_substantive": 0.54, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.13, "jev_has_rule": 0.05, "quality_score": 3.315, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2011265726318068067", "text": "聊个话题 “怎么设置止损”\n\n很少看到新人真正把风控当回事儿，但交易过几年的都会告诉你风控是交易的第一位\n\n原因很简单，都被一波带走狠狠打痛过，还可能不止一次", "date": "2026-01-14 02:34:51", "date_only": "2026-01-14", "timestamp": 1768358091.0, "likes": 207, "retweets": 13, "replies": 76, "views": 35696, "isReply": false, "text_len": 79, "curation_score": 475.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2011265726318068067", "substance_score": 3.6000000000000005, "jev_is_substantive": 0.71, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.1, "jev_has_rule": 0.08, "quality_score": 3.6000000000000005, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "2062642780040823011", "text": "Crypto下轮周期的绝对主线和增量将是“通过代币化和稳定币吸血美股和美债资金，替代现有的金融基础设施，并建立一套更便捷、更自由流通、更小磨损、更全球化的价值流通体系”\n\n现在不同意没关系，mark一下，三年后咱们再回头看\n\nThe thesis will be inevitable", "date": "2026-06-04 21:08:55", "date_only": "2026-06-04", "timestamp": 1780607335.0, "likes": 592, "retweets": 59, "replies": 39, "views": 202099, "isReply": false, "text_len": 142, "curation_score": 812.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/2062642780040823011", "substance_score": 3.856, "jev_is_substantive": 0.86, "jev_domain": "macro_cycle", "jev_confidence": 0.94, "jev_depth": 1.08, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.856, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1906580467492762022", "text": "预感这轮周期usdt可能会有场大劫，不管是usdt欧区下架，孙哥搞usdd，还是trump搞usd1，明面风平浪静，实则暗流涌动，注意下风控。", "date": "2025-03-31 05:33:00", "date_only": "2025-03-31", "timestamp": 1743399180.0, "likes": 282, "retweets": 29, "replies": 145, "views": 265276, "isReply": false, "text_len": 71, "curation_score": 652.0, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1906580467492762022", "substance_score": 3.552, "jev_is_substantive": 0.7, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.39, "jev_depth": 1.08, "jev_has_rule": 0.04, "quality_score": 3.552, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1911682287118557523", "text": "看到一句话深有感触：“做交易本质上就是在追求知行合一的过程。我能知道、我能理解、我能做到”。\n\n“我能知道”最简单，是观察的结果，我知道它在涨，或者我知道它在跌。", "date": "2025-04-14 07:25:49", "date_only": "2025-04-14", "timestamp": 1744615549.0, "likes": 339, "retweets": 54, "replies": 74, "views": 68325, "isReply": false, "text_len": 81, "curation_score": 688.6, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1911682287118557523", "substance_score": 3.611, "jev_is_substantive": 0.76, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.05, "jev_has_rule": 0.02, "quality_score": 3.611, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1998648028165714251", "text": "当价格跟你的逻辑是反着的时候，先信价格", "date": "2025-12-10 06:56:37", "date_only": "2025-12-10", "timestamp": 1765349797.0, "likes": 102, "retweets": 4, "replies": 39, "views": 41564, "isReply": false, "text_len": 19, "curation_score": 313.1, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1998648028165714251", "substance_score": 3.6270000000000002, "jev_is_substantive": 0.88, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 1.0, "jev_depth": 1.05, "jev_has_rule": 0.09, "quality_score": 3.6270000000000002, "is_mental_model": true }, { "id": "1917848446872216063", "text": "分享两条我刚开始做二级交易对我交易纪律帮助很大的规则，", "date": "2025-05-01 07:47:56", "date_only": "2025-05-01", "timestamp": 1746085676.0, "likes": 233, "retweets": 37, "replies": 29, "views": 59219, "isReply": false, "text_len": 27, "curation_score": 579.4, "is_featured": true, "local_images": [], "url": "https://x.com/Michael_Liu93/status/1917848446872216063", "substance_score": 3.8689999999999998, "jev_is_substantive": 0.82, "jev_domain": "mindset_risk", "jev_confidence": 0.85, "jev_depth": 1.03, "jev_has_rule": 0.23, "quality_score": 3.8689999999999998, "is_mental_model": true } ]